Bitcoin Price Chart (BTC) Coinbase

How I plan to identify and sell the top of the next market cycle.

In this post I will share with you some of the strategies I will use to identify the next market cycle top so I can sell for maximum profits (and of course buy back in later in the subsequent bear market!) In the first part of this post I will discuss the resources I will use and in the second part I will discuss tactics in selling and risk management.

Indicators

As the bull run begins to drag on and the price of ETH starts getting closer and closer to $10k I will begin to start watching many of the data science charts over at Look into Bitcoin. This will not be the only source I will use since there are great custom tools on TradingView too as well as more subjective indicators such as friends and family talking crypto and hearing about crypto again in the mainstream media. I’d also like to note that many of the indicators I will be looking at will be Bitcoin focused despite my ETH centred portfolio. Like it or not, this market is still Bitcoin dominated and despite the many proponents of an ETH flippening (myself included), it is quite likely that we will not see it this cycle due to the macro investing environment favouring assets which are good stores of value to weather the uncertainty. Ultimately, Bitcoin has the best store of value meme in crypto and that will be very powerful in the coming years.
I think it is likely that the time for Ethereum or a network like Ethereum with a yielding asset (ETH under ETH 2.0) and a native economy of DeFi, DApps, NFTs and much more will be once all of the stock market uncertainty is over and investors are ready to take on more risk again. I am of course still expecting Ethereum and altcoins to outperform Bitcoin this cycle. However, I think that Bitcoin losing the number 1 spot will be more likely to happen between 2023 and 2030 rather than in the next 2-3 years. I hope I am wrong though.
While most of the indicators on Looking into Bitcoin are useful, I will list the ones I’ll be focusing on the most here:
And finally my favourite, the Golden Ratio Multiplier. This indicator has been remarkably accurate at predicting tops using the golden ratio (1.6) and the fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) multiplied by the 350 day moving average. With each market cycle, the 350 day moving average is multiplied by the next number down in the fibonacci sequence. For example, the 2013 peak only just passed above the 350 day moving average multiplied by 8 and the 2017 bull market just touched the 350 day moving average multiplied by 5. So if this indicator is to work in the next cycle, we can expect the price to slightly exceed 3 times the value of the 350 day moving average. This indicator also worked for Ethereum in the 2017 bull run. While there is no graph for it, on the 13th of January, when ETH hit a peak of $1,419, the 350 day moving average was at $270. $270 multiplied by 5 is $1,350. If you sold at $1,350 you sold incredibly close to the top and I don’t think that any macro traders/long term traders would complain about that timing.
I’d like to note that while indicators like the Golden Ratio Multiplier factors in for less explosive growth each cycle, not all of the above indicators do. So be cautious of this when you think the peak is near as it may be closer than you think. In saying that, there is a lot of luck involved so I should also point out that it also might not be closer than you think. However, it would be better to sell before the peak at say $10,000/BTC as of 2017 than to be left holding all of your crypto when the bear market begins since Bitcoin didn’t spend much time above $10,000/BTC after the $20K peak. Ultimately it is up to you to decide your risk appetite and how well you want to try and time the market. For me, I will definitely be on the conservative side so that I don’t miss the boat completely and hopefully I will be able to sell most of my crypto just before we peak rather than afterwards.

Risk Management

Since timing the top requires a lot of luck, a good method of mitigating the risk is to spread out when you sell. I’m going to share with you my personal strategy but I recommend that you create your own strategy or use this as a basis from which you can use to adjust and tweak it to optimally suit your situation. If you have a large stack, you will probably want to sell early since you might not need such spectacular gains to lock in some life changing money. On the other hand, if you have a smaller stack or if you are younger, you can afford to take more risk and might want to try and time the absolute peak a bit better to get that much closer to making some life changing money. Personally, while my stack isn’t very big in dollar terms, it is a significant % of my net worth and so I don’t have a high risk tolerance with it (at least relative to other people in crypto!) For this reason I will be selling a little bit on the early side.
My plan has three pots of crypto. 20% of my crypto I will hold indefinitely since I very strongly believe in the long term prospect of ETH and BTC as investments. This way if I time the markets terribly, I will always have some skin in the crypto game. The second pot of crypto is 40% which I will sell on the way up to take some profits and I don’t intend on putting this money back into crypto. Initially I will be selling very small amounts of this 40% and as the indicators listed above get closer and closer to calling a top, I will sell larger proportions of this crypto. I haven’t set specific target numbers since things change fast in this space and I feel like the best decisions in this case are made in the moment. For example, estimating a market top is hard when it is 2-3 years away, but it is much easier when it is just months or weeks away. Once again, this is just personal preference. Many of you will find that setting targets now makes it easier for you to pull the trigger and take some profits when everyone else is calling $1M BTC while it is at $100K or calling for $100K ETH when the current price might be $10K.
Finally, the last 40% I will sell all at once when I feel like we are at the top and I am confident that the price will be lower a year on from that point in time. With this 40% I will try and buy back during the bear market with the help of many of the same indicators I listed above from Look into Bitcoin. I will also use some indicators which I didn’t mention above since some are better designed at identifying market bottoms. My goal is to be able to buy back the number of BTC and ETH I held before I sold anything with this 40% (plus the 20% I didn’t sell). This is a big ask but it is better in life to set hard goals that seem unattainable or unrealistic than it is to set easy goals.
To summarise my portfolio strategy, 20% of my portfolio is an indefinite hold, 40% I will sell on the way up and I do not intend on buying back into crypto with this money so I can avoid being over-exposed to crypto. The last 40% I will use to try and sell the top and buy the bottom.

Closing Notes

As a closing note I would like to say that it will be important to be aware of the power of greed and FOMO. Do not under-estimate these emotions and try to remain a grounded and rational investor. Don’t be scared to take profits. I know from experience trading altcoins that it is better to exit a position early and miss out on another 100% price increase than it is to hold through a bear market and take >90% losses. If you go into this bullrun telling yourself you will take profits on the way up, you will have no reason to regret any early sales since you will know that you made a rational trade and not an emotional trade.
submitted by Tricky_Troll to ethfinance [link] [comments]

Lines of Navigation | Monthly Portfolio Update - July 202

Our little systems have their day;
They have their day and cease to be
- Tennyson, In Memoriam A.H.H.
This is my forty-fourth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Total portfolio value: $1 800 119 (+$34 376 or 1.9%)
Asset allocation
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
The portfolio has substantially increased this month, continuing the recovery in portfolio value since March.
The strong portfolio growth of over $34 000, or 1.9 per cent, returns the value of the portfolio close to that achieved at the end of February this year.
[Chart]
This month there was minimal movement in the value of Australian and global equity holdings, There was, however, a significant lift of around 6 per cent in the value of gold exchange traded fund units, as well as a rise in the value of Bitcoin holdings.
These movements have pushed the value of gold holdings to their highest level so far on the entire journey. Their total value has approximately doubled since the original major purchases across 2009 to 2015.
For most of the past year gold has functioned as a portfolio stabiliser, having a negative correlation to movements in Australian equities (of around -0.3 to -0.4). As low and negative bond rates spread across the world, however, the opportunity cost of holding gold is reduced, and its potential diversification benefits loom larger.
The fixed income holdings of the portfolio also continued to fall beneath the target allocation, making this question of what represents a defensive (or negatively correlated to equity) asset far from academic.
This steady fall is a function of the slow maturing of Ratesetter loans, which were largely made between 2015 and 2017. Ratesetter has recently advised of important changes to its market operation, and placed a fixed maximum cap on new loan rates. By replacing market set rates with maximum rates, the peer-to-peer lending platform appears to be shifting to more of a 'intermediated' role in which higher past returns (of around 8 to 9 per cent) will now no longer be possible.
[Chart]
The expanding value of gold and Bitcoin holdings since January last year have actually had the practical effect of driving new investments into equities, since effectively for each dollar of appreciation, for example, my target allocation to equities rises by seven dollars.
Consistent with this, investments this month have been in the Vanguard international shares exchange-traded fund (VGS) using Selfwealth. This has been directed to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares.
Fathoming out: franking credits and portfolio distributions
Earlier last month I released a summary of portfolio income over the past half year. This, like all before it, noted that the summary was prepared on a purely 'cash' basis, reflecting dividends actually paid into a bank account, and excluding consideration of franking credits.
Franking credits are credits for company tax paid at the company level, which can be passed to individual shareholders, reducing their personal tax liability. They are not cash, but for a personal investor with tax liabilities they can have equivalent value. This means that comparing equity returns to other investments without factoring these credits can produce a distorted picture of an investor's final after-tax return.
In past portfolio summaries I have noted an estimate for franking credits in footnotes, but updating the value for this recently resulted in a curiosity about the overall significance of this neglected element of my equity returns.
This neglect resulted from my perception earlier in the journey that they represented a marginal and abstract factor, which could effectively be assumed away for the sake of simplicity in reporting.
This is not a wholly unfair view, in the sense that income physically received and able to be spent is something definably different in kind than a notional 'pre-payment' credit for future tax costs. Yet, as the saying goes, because the prospect of personal tax is as certain as extinction from this world, in some senses a credit of this kind can be as valuable as a cash distribution.
Restoring the record: trends and drivers of franking credits
To collect a more accurate picture of the trends and drivers of franking credits I relied on a few sources - tax statements, records and the automatic franking credit estimates that the portfolio tracking site Sharesight generates.
The chart below sets out both the level and major different sources of franking credits received over the past eleven years.
[Chart]
From this chart some observations can be made.
The key reason for the rapid growth over the recent decade has been the increased investment holdings in Australian equities. As part of the deliberate rebalancing towards Australian shares across the past two years, these holdings have expanded.
The chart below sets out the total value of Australian shares held over the comparable period.
[Chart]
As an example, at the beginning of this record Australian equities valued at around $276 000 were held. Three years later, the holding were nearly three times larger.
The phase of consistently increasing the Australian equities holding to meet its allocated weighting is largely complete. This means that the period of rapid growth seen in the past few years is unlikely to repeat. Rather, growth will revert to be in proportion to total portfolio growth.
Close to cross-over: the credit card records
One of the most powerful initial motivators to reach financial independence was the concept of the 'cross over' point in Vicki Robins and Joe Dominguez's Your Money or Your Life. This was the point at which monthly expenses are exceeded by investment income.
One of the metrics I have traced is this 'cross-over' point in relation to recorded credit card expenses. And this point is now close indeed.
Expenditures on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month. The three year rolling average of monthly credit card spending remains at its lowest point over the period of the journey. Distributions on the same basis now meet over 99 per cent of card expenses - with the gap now the equivalent of less than $50 per month.
[Chart]
The period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent form of financial independence has continued.
The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the the extent to which to which portfolio distributions (red) cover estimated total expenses (green), measured month to month.
[Chart]
An alternative way to view the same data is to examine the degree to which total expenses (i.e. fixed payments not made on credit card added to monthly credit card expenses) are met by distributions received.
An updated version of this is seen in the chart below.
[Chart]
Interestingly, on a trend basis, this currently identifies a 'crossing over' point of trend distributions fully meeting total expenditure from around November 2019. This is not conclusive, however, as the trend curve is sensitive to the unusual COVID-19 related observations of the first half of this year, and could easily shift further downward if normal expense patterns resume.
One issue this analysis raises is what to do with the 'credit card purchases' measure reported below. This measure is designed to provide a stylised benchmark of how close the current portfolio is to a target of generating the income required to meet an annual average credit card expenditure of $71 000.
The problem with this is that continued falling credit card spending means that average credit card spending is lower than that benchmark for all time horizons - measured as three and four year averages, or in fact taken as a whole since 2013. So the set benchmark may, if anything, be understating actual progress compared the graphs and data above by not reflecting changing spending levels.
In the past I have addressed this trend by reducing the benchmark. Over coming months, or perhaps at the end of the year, I will need to revisit both the meaning, and method, of setting this measure.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 82.6% 111.5%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 100.7% 136.0%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 80.7% 109.0%
Summary
One of the most challenging aspects of closing in on a fixed numerical target for financial independence with risk assets still in place is that the updrafts and downdrafts of market movements can push the goal further away, or surprisingly close.
There have been long period of the journey where the total value of portfolio has barely grown, despite regular investments being made. As an example, the portfolio ended 2018 lower than it started the year. The past six months have been another such period. This can create a sense of treading water.
Yet amidst the economic devastation affecting real lives and businesses, this is an extremely fortunate position to be in. Australia and the globe are set to experience an economic contraction far more severe than the Global Financial Crisis, with a lesser capacity than previously for interest rates to cushion the impact. Despite similar measures being adopted by governments to address the downturn, it is not clear whether these are fit for purpose.
Asset allocation in this environment - of being almost suspended between two realities - is a difficult problem. The history of markets can tell us that just when assets seem most 'broken', they can produce outsized returns. Yet the problem remains that far from being surrounded by broken markets, the proliferation appears to be in bubble-like conditions.
This recent podcast discussion with the founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer provided a useful historical context to current financial conditions this month. One of the themes of the conversation was 'thinking the unthinkable', such as a return of inflation. Similar, this Hoover Institute video discussion, with a 'Back from the future' premise, provides some entertaining, informed and insightful views on the surprising and contingent nature of what we know to be true.
Some of our little systems may well have had their day, but what could replace them remains obscured to any observer.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

ETHE & GBTC (Grayscale) Frequently Asked Questions

It is no doubt Grayscale’s booming popularity as a mainstream investment has caused a lot of community hullabaloo lately. As such, I felt it was worth making a FAQ regarding the topic. I’m looking to update this as needed and of course am open to suggestions / adding any questions.
The goal is simply to have a thread we can link to anyone with questions on Grayscale and its products. Instead of explaining the same thing 3 times a day, shoot those posters over to this thread. My hope is that these questions are answered in a fairly simple and easy to understand manner. I think as the sub grows it will be a nice reference point for newcomers.
Disclaimer: I do NOT work for Grayscale and as such am basing all these answers on information that can be found on their website / reports. (Grayscale’s official FAQ can be found here). I also do NOT have a finance degree, I do NOT have a Series 6 / 7 / 140-whatever, and I do NOT work with investment products for my day job. I have an accounting background and work within the finance world so I have the general ‘business’ knowledge to put it all together, but this is all info determined in my best faith effort as a layman. The point being is this --- it is possible I may explain something wrong or missed the technical terms, and if that occurs I am more than happy to update anything that can be proven incorrect
Everything below will be in reference to ETHE but will apply to GBTC as well. If those two segregate in any way, I will note that accordingly.
What is Grayscale? 
Grayscale is the company that created the ETHE product. Their website is https://grayscale.co/
What is ETHE? 
ETHE is essentially a stock that intends to loosely track the price of ETH. It does so by having each ETHE be backed by a specific amount of ETH that is held on chain. Initially, the newly minted ETHE can only be purchased by institutions and accredited investors directly from Grayscale. Once a year has passed (6 months for GBTC) it can then be listed on the OTCQX Best Market exchange for secondary trading. Once listed on OTCQX, anyone investor can purchase at this point. Additional information on ETHE can be found here.
So ETHE is an ETF? 
No. For technical reasons beyond my personal understandings it is not labeled an ETF. I know it all flows back to the “Securities Act Rule 144”, but due to my limited knowledge on SEC regulations I don’t want to misspeak past that. If anyone is more knowledgeable on the subject I am happy to input their answer here.
How long has ETHE existed? 
ETHE was formed 12/14/2017. GBTC was formed 9/25/2013.
How is ETHE created? 
The trust will issue shares to “Authorized Participants” in groups of 100 shares (called baskets). Authorized Participants are the only persons that may place orders to create these baskets and they do it on behalf of the investor.
Source: Creation and Redemption of Shares section on page 39 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Note – The way their reports word this makes it sound like there is an army of authorizers doing the dirty work, but in reality there is only one Authorized Participant. At this moment the “Genesis” company is the sole Authorized Participant. Genesis is owned by the “Digital Currency Group, Inc.” which is the parent company of Grayscale as well. (And to really go down the rabbit hole it looks like DCG is the parent company of CoinDesk and is “backing 150+ companies across 30 countries, including Coinbase, Ripple, and Chainalysis.”)
Source: Digital Currency Group, Inc. informational section on page 77 of the “Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) Form 10-K (2019)” – Located Here
Source: Barry E. Silbert informational section on page 75 of the “Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) Form 10-K (2019)” – Located Here
How does Grayscale acquire the ETH to collateralize the ETHE product? 
An Investor may acquire ETHE by paying in cash or exchanging ETH already owned.
Source: Creation and Redemption of Shares section on page 40 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Where does Grayscale store their ETH? Does it have a specific wallet address we can follow? 
ETH is stored with Coinbase Custody Trust Company, LLC. I am unaware of any specific address or set of addresses that can be used to verify the ETH is actually there.
As an aside - I would actually love to see if anyone knows more about this as it’s something that’s sort of peaked my interest after being asked about it… I find it doubtful we can find that however.
Source: Part C. Business Information, Item 8, subsection A. on page 16 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Can ETHE be redeemed for ETH? 
No, currently there is no way to give your shares of ETHE back to Grayscale to receive ETH back. The only method of getting back into ETH would be to sell your ETHE to someone else and then use those proceeds to buy ETH yourself.
Source: Redemption Procedures on page 41 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Why are they not redeeming shares? 
I think the report summarizes it best:
Redemptions of Shares are currently not permitted and the Trust is unable to redeem Shares. Subject to receipt of regulatory approval from the SEC and approval by the Sponsor in its sole discretion, the Trust may in the future operate a redemption program. Because the Trust does not believe that the SEC would, at this time, entertain an application for the waiver of rules needed in order to operate an ongoing redemption program, the Trust currently has no intention of seeking regulatory approval from the SEC to operate an ongoing redemption program.
Source: Redemption Procedures on page 41 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
What is the fee structure? 
ETHE has an annual fee of 2.5%. GBTC has an annual fee of 2.0%. Fees are paid by selling the underlying ETH / BTC collateralizing the asset.
Source: ETHE’s informational page on Grayscale’s website - Located Here
Source: Description of Trust on page 31 & 32 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
What is the ratio of ETH to ETHE? 
At the time of posting (6/19/2020) each ETHE share is backed by .09391605 ETH. Each share of GBTC is backed by .00096038 BTC.
ETHE & GBTC’s specific information page on Grayscale’s website updates the ratio daily – Located Here
For a full historical look at this ratio, it can be found on the Grayscale home page on the upper right side if you go to Tax Documents > 2019 Tax Documents > Grayscale Ethereum Trust 2019 Tax Letter.
Why is the ratio not 1:1? Why is it always decreasing? 
While I cannot say for certain why the initial distribution was not a 1:1 backing, it is more than likely to keep the price down and allow more investors a chance to purchase ETHE / GBTC.
As noted above, fees are paid by selling off the ETH collateralizing ETHE. So this number will always be trending downward as time goes on.
Source: Description of Trust on page 32 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
I keep hearing about how this is locked supply… explain? 
As noted above, there is currently no redemption program for converting your ETHE back into ETH. This means that once an ETHE is issued, it will remain in circulation until a redemption program is formed --- something that doesn’t seem to be too urgent for the SEC or Grayscale at the moment. Tiny amounts will naturally be removed due to fees, but the bulk of the asset is in there for good.
Knowing that ETHE cannot be taken back and destroyed at this time, the ETH collateralizing it will not be removed from the wallet for the foreseeable future. While it is not fully locked in the sense of say a totally lost key, it is not coming out any time soon.
Per their annual statement:
The Trust’s ETH will be transferred out of the ETH Account only in the following circumstances: (i) transferred to pay the Sponsor’s Fee or any Additional Trust Expenses, (ii) distributed in connection with the redemption of Baskets (subject to the Trust’s obtaining regulatory approval from the SEC to operate an ongoing redemption program and the consent of the Sponsor), (iii) sold on an as-needed basis to pay Additional Trust Expenses or (iv) sold on behalf of the Trust in the event the Trust terminates and liquidates its assets or as otherwise required by law or regulation.
Source: Description of Trust on page 31 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Grayscale now owns a huge chunk of both ETH and BTC’s supply… should we be worried about manipulation, a sell off to crash the market crash, a staking cartel? 
First, it’s important to remember Grayscale is a lot more akin to an exchange then say an investment firm. Grayscale is working on behalf of its investors to create this product for investor control. Grayscale doesn’t ‘control’ the ETH it holds any more then Coinbase ‘controls’ the ETH in its hot wallet. (Note: There are likely some varying levels of control, but specific to this topic Grayscale cannot simply sell [legally, at least] the ETH by their own decision in the same manner Coinbase wouldn't be able to either.)
That said, there shouldn’t be any worry in the short to medium time-frame. As noted above, Grayscale can’t really remove ETH other than for fees or termination of the product. At 2.5% a year, fees are noise in terms of volume. Grayscale seems to be the fastest growing product in the crypto space at the moment and termination of the product seems unlikely.
IF redemptions were to happen tomorrow, it’s extremely unlikely we would see a mass exodus out of the product to redeem for ETH. And even if there was incentive to get back to ETH, the premium makes it so that it would be much more cost effective to just sell your ETHE on the secondary market and buy ETH yourself. Remember, any redemption is up to the investors and NOT something Grayscale has direct control over.
Yes, but what about [insert criminal act here]… 
Alright, yes. Technically nothing is stopping Grayscale from selling all the ETH / BTC and running off to the Bahamas (Hawaii?). BUT there is no real reason for them to do so. Barry is an extremely public figure and it won’t be easy for him to get away with that. Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust creates SEC reports weekly / bi-weekly and I’m sure given the sentiment towards crypto is being watched carefully. Plus, Grayscale is making tons of consistent revenue and thus has little to no incentive to give that up for a quick buck.
That’s a lot of ‘happy little feels’ Bob, is there even an independent audit or is this Tether 2.0? 
Actually yes, an independent auditor report can be found in their annual reports. It is clearly aimed more towards the financial side and I doubt the auditors are crypto savants, but it is at least one extra set of eyes. Auditors are Friedman LLP – Auditor since 2015.
Source: Independent Auditor Report starting on page 116 (of the PDF itself) of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
As mentioned by user TheCrpytosAndBloods (In Comments Below), a fun fact:
The company’s auditors Friedman LLP were also coincidentally TetheBitfinex’s auditors until They controversially parted ways in 2018 when the Tether controversy was at its height. I am not suggesting for one moment that there is anything shady about DCG - I just find it interesting it’s the same auditor.
“Grayscale sounds kind of lame” / “Not your keys not your crypto!” / “Why is anyone buying this, it sounds like a scam?” 
Welp, for starters this honestly is not really a product aimed at the people likely to be reading this post. To each their own, but do remember just because something provides no value to you doesn’t mean it can’t provide value to someone else. That said some of the advertised benefits are as follows:
So for example, I can set up an IRA at a brokerage account that has $0 trading fees. Then I can trade GBTC and ETHE all day without having to worry about tracking my taxes. All with the relative safety something like E-Trade provides over Binance.
As for how it benefits the everyday ETH holder? I think the supply lock is a positive. I also think this product exposes the Ethereum ecosystem to people who otherwise wouldn’t know about it.
Why is there a premium? Why is ETHE’s premium so insanely high compared to GBTC’s premium? 
There are a handful of theories of why a premium exists at all, some even mentioned in the annual report. The short list is as follows:
Why is ETHE’s so much higher the GBTC’s? Again, a few thoughts:

Are there any other differences between ETHE and GBTC? 
I touched on a few of the smaller differences, but one of the more interesting changes is GBTC is now a “SEC reporting company” as of January 2020. Which again goes beyond my scope of knowledge so I won’t comment on it too much… but the net result is GBTC is now putting out weekly / bi-weekly 8-K’s and annual 10-K’s. This means you can track GBTC that much easier at the moment as well as there is an extra layer of validity to the product IMO.
I’m looking for some statistics on ETHE… such as who is buying, how much is bought, etc? 
There is a great Q1 2020 report I recommend you give a read that has a lot of cool graphs and data on the product. It’s a little GBTC centric, but there is some ETHE data as well. It can be found here hidden within the 8-K filings.Q1 2020 is the 4/16/2020 8-K filing.
For those more into a GAAP style report see the 2019 annual 10-K of the same location.
Is Grayscale only just for BTC and ETH? 
No, there are other products as well. In terms of a secondary market product, ETCG is the Ethereum Classic version of ETHE. Fun Fact – ETCG was actually put out to the secondary market first. It also has a 3% fee tied to it where 1% of it goes to some type of ETC development fund.
In terms of institutional and accredited investors, there are a few ‘fan favorites’ such as Bitcoin Cash, Litcoin, Stellar, XRP, and Zcash. Something called Horizion (Backed by ZEN I guess? Idk to be honest what that is…). And a diversified Mutual Fund type fund that has a little bit of all of those. None of these products are available on the secondary market.
Are there alternatives to Grayscale? 
I know they exist, but I don’t follow them. I’ll leave this as a “to be edited” section and will add as others comment on what they know.
Per user Over-analyser (in comments below):
Coinshares (Formerly XBT provider) are the only similar product I know of. BTC, ETH, XRP and LTC as Exchange Traded Notes (ETN).
It looks like they are fully backed with the underlying crypto (no premium).
https://coinshares.com/etps/xbt-provideinvestor-resources/daily-hedging-position
Denominated in SEK and EUR. Certainly available in some UK pensions (SIPP).
As asked by pegcity - Okay so I was under the impression you can just give them your own ETH and get ETHE, but do you get 11 ETHE per ETH or do you get the market value of ETH in USD worth of ETHE? 
I have always understood that the ETHE issued directly through Grayscale is issued without the premium. As in, if I were to trade 1 ETH for ETHE I would get 11, not say only 2 or 3 because the secondary market premium is so high. And if I were paying cash only I would be paying the price to buy 1 ETH to get my 11 ETHE. Per page 39 of their annual statement, it reads as follows:
The Trust will issue Shares to Authorized Participants from time to time, but only in one or more Baskets (with a Basket being a block of 100 Shares). The Trust will not issue fractions of a Basket. The creation (and, should the Trust commence a redemption program, redemption) of Baskets will be made only in exchange for the delivery to the Trust, or the distribution by the Trust, of the number of whole and fractional ETH represented by each Basket being created (or, should the Trust commence a redemption program, redeemed), which is determined by dividing (x) the number of ETH owned by the Trust at 4:00 p.m., New York time, on the trade date of a creation or redemption order, after deducting the number of ETH representing the U.S. dollar value of accrued but unpaid fees and expenses of the Trust (converted using the ETH Index Price at such time, and carried to the eighth decimal place), by (y) the number of Shares outstanding at such time (with the quotient so obtained calculated to one one-hundred-millionth of one ETH (i.e., carried to the eighth decimal place)), and multiplying such quotient by 100 (the “Basket ETH Amount”). All questions as to the calculation of the Basket ETH Amount will be conclusively determined by the Sponsor and will be final and binding on all persons interested in the Trust. The Basket ETH Amount multiplied by the number of Baskets being created or redeemed is the “Total Basket ETH Amount.” The number of ETH represented by a Share will gradually decrease over time as the Trust’s ETH are used to pay the Trust’s expenses. Each Share represented approximately 0.0950 ETH and 0.0974 ETH as of December 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively.

submitted by Bob-Rossi to ethfinance [link] [comments]

How I plan to identify and sell the top of the next market cycle.

In this post I will share with you some of the strategies I will use to identify the next market cycle top so I can sell for maximum profits (and of course buy back in later in the subsequent bear market!) In the first part of this post I will discuss the resources I will use and in the second part I will discuss tactics in selling and risk management.

Indicators

As the bull run begins to drag on and the price of ETH starts getting closer and closer to $10k I will begin to start watching many of the data science charts over at Look into Bitcoin. This will not be the only source I will use since there are great custom tools on TradingView too as well as more subjective indicators such as friends and family talking crypto and hearing about crypto again in the mainstream media. I’d also like to note that many of the indicators I will be looking at will be Bitcoin focused despite my ETH centred portfolio. Like it or not, this market is still Bitcoin dominated and despite the many proponents of an ETH flippening (myself included), it is quite likely that we will not see it this cycle due to the macro investing environment favouring assets which are good stores of value to weather the uncertainty. Ultimately, Bitcoin has the best store of value meme in crypto and that will be very powerful in the coming years.
I think it is likely that the time for Ethereum or a network like Ethereum with a yielding asset (ETH under ETH 2.0) and a native economy of DeFi, DApps, NFTs and much more will be once all of the stock market uncertainty is over and investors are ready to take on more risk again. I am of course still expecting Ethereum and altcoins to outperform Bitcoin this cycle. However, I think that Bitcoin losing the number 1 spot will be more likely to happen between 2023 and 2030 rather than in the next 2-3 years. I hope I am wrong though.
While most of the indicators on Looking into Bitcoin are useful, I will list the ones I’ll be focusing on the most here:
And finally my favourite, the Golden Ratio Multiplier. This indicator has been remarkably accurate at predicting tops using the golden ratio (1.6) and the fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) multiplied by the 350 day moving average. With each market cycle, the 350 day moving average is multiplied by the next number down in the fibonacci sequence. For example, the 2013 peak only just passed above the 350 day moving average multiplied by 8 and the 2017 bull market just touched the 350 day moving average multiplied by 5. So if this indicator is to work in the next cycle, we can expect the price to slightly exceed 3 times the value of the 350 day moving average. This indicator also worked for Ethereum in the 2017 bull run. While there is no graph for it, on the 13th of January, when ETH hit a peak of $1,419, the 350 day moving average was at $270. $270 multiplied by 5 is $1,350. If you sold at $1,350 you sold incredibly close to the top and I don’t think that any macro traders/long term traders would complain about that timing.
I’d like to note that while indicators like the Golden Ratio Multiplier factors in for less explosive growth each cycle, not all of the above indicators do. So be cautious of this when you think the peak is near as it may be closer than you think. In saying that, there is a lot of luck involved so I should also point out that it also might not be closer than you think. However, it would be better to sell before the peak at say $10,000/BTC as of 2017 than to be left holding all of your crypto when the bear market begins since Bitcoin didn’t spend much time above $10,000/BTC after the $20K peak. Ultimately it is up to you to decide your risk appetite and how well you want to try and time the market. For me, I will definitely be on the conservative side so that I don’t miss the boat completely and hopefully I will be able to sell most of my crypto just before we peak rather than afterwards.

Risk Management

Since timing the top requires a lot of luck, a good method of mitigating the risk is to spread out when you sell. I’m going to share with you my personal strategy but I recommend that you create your own strategy or use this as a basis from which you can use to adjust and tweak it to optimally suit your situation. If you have a large stack, you will probably want to sell early since you might not need such spectacular gains to lock in some life changing money. On the other hand, if you have a smaller stack or if you are younger, you can afford to take more risk and might want to try and time the absolute peak a bit better to get that much closer to making some life changing money. Personally, while my stack isn’t very big in dollar terms, it is a significant % of my net worth and so I don’t have a high risk tolerance with it (at least relative to other people in crypto!) For this reason I will be selling a little bit on the early side.
My plan has three pots of crypto. 20% of my crypto I will hold indefinitely since I very strongly believe in the long term prospect of ETH and BTC as investments. This way if I time the markets terribly, I will always have some skin in the crypto game. The second pot of crypto is 40% which I will sell on the way up to take some profits and I don’t intend on putting this money back into crypto. Initially I will be selling very small amounts of this 40% and as the indicators listed above get closer and closer to calling a top, I will sell larger proportions of this crypto. I haven’t set specific target numbers since things change fast in this space and I feel like the best decisions in this case are made in the moment. For example, estimating a market top is hard when it is 2-3 years away, but it is much easier when it is just months or weeks away. Once again, this is just personal preference. Many of you will find that setting targets now makes it easier for you to pull the trigger and take some profits when everyone else is calling $1M BTC while it is at $100K or calling for $100K ETH when the current price might be $10K.
Finally, the last 40% I will sell all at once when I feel like we are at the top and I am confident that the price will be lower a year on from that point in time. With this 40% I will try and buy back during the bear market with the help of many of the same indicators I listed above from Look into Bitcoin. I will also use some indicators which I didn’t mention above since some are better designed at identifying market bottoms. My goal is to be able to buy back the number of BTC and ETH I held before I sold anything with this 40% (plus the 20% I didn’t sell). This is a big ask but it is better in life to set hard goals that seem unattainable or unrealistic than it is to set easy goals.
To summarise my portfolio strategy, 20% of my portfolio is an indefinite hold, 40% I will sell on the way up and I do not intend on buying back into crypto with this money so I can avoid being over-exposed to crypto. The last 40% I will use to try and sell the top and buy the bottom.

Closing Notes

As a closing note I would like to say that it will be important to be aware of the power of greed and FOMO. Do not under-estimate these emotions and try to remain a grounded and rational investor. Don’t be scared to take profits. I know from experience trading altcoins that it is better to exit a position early and miss out on another 100% price increase than it is to hold through a bear market and take >90% losses. If you go into this bullrun telling yourself you will take profits on the way up, you will have no reason to regret any early sales since you will know that you made a rational trade and not an emotional trade.
submitted by Tricky_Troll to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

[SHARE] Fulfilled Request Megathread 4 FREE DOWNLOAD

Download any of these for free at https://oppfiles.com/585933
DM me if you have any requests for anything not on the list.
Please subscribe the sub to find all the eBook releases. Enjoy!
[BOOK] 'The macabresque : human violation and hate in genocide, mass atrocity and enemy-making' Edward Weisband, Oxford University Press 2018(self) 1 [BOOK] Scotland After the Ice Age Environment, Archaeology and History 8000 BC - AD 1000(self) 1 [Book] Ethics of Captivity edited by Lori Gruen(self) 1 [Book] Aspects of American History By Simon Henderson(self) 1 [Book] The Soviet Colossus History and Aftermath By Michael G. Kort(self) 1 [BOOK] Challenges to Political Decision-making Dealing with Information Overload, Ignorance and Contested Knowledge(self) 5 [Article] The EU Competition Law Fining System: A Reassessment, Damien Geradin(self) 1 [Book] Russia and the USSR, 1855–1991 Autocracy and Dictatorship ByStephen J. Lee(self) 1 [Book] Søren Kierkegaard: Epistemology and psychology : Kierkegaard and the recoil from freedom - Daniel W. Conway, K. E. Gover(self) 4 [ARTICLE] 'A History of Reason in the Age of Insanity: The Deconstruction of Foucault in Hegel’s Phenomenology' The Owl of Minerva, Volume 25, Issue 1, Fall 1993, Andrew Cutrofello Pages 15-21(self) 1 [BOOK] Mere Civility by Teresa M. Bejan(self) 2 [book] The Philosophy Shop by Peter Worley(self) 1 [BOOK] Sentenciando Trafico - Marcelo Semer(self) 1 [Article] GENETIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH BREAK-INDUCED REPLICATION(self) 1 [Article] Properties of elastic bodies in contact - J. Dundurs 1975(self) 2 [Article] Transition alumina phases induced by heat treatment of boehmite: An X-ray diffraction and infrared spectroscopy study(self) 1 [Book] Russian Companion by James Cooper(self) 1 [Book] Model Stock Purchase Agreement with Commentary, by American Bar Association(self) 1 [Book] A History of Modern France By Jeremy D. Popkin(self) 1 [Book] Mathematical Notation: A Guide for Engineers and Scientists(self) 1 [Book] The Epistemological Significance of the Interrogative by James Somerville(self) 1 [Book] Looking for Managing Human Resources 11e. by Cascio, Wayne F.(self) 4 [Article] XVIII. The arrangement of atoms in crystals(self) 4 [Article] I am looking for "The Myth of Cartesian Privacy"(self) 5 [Book] Litigating morality : American legal thought and its English roots(self) 4 [Article] Child-on-child sexual abuse: An investigation of behavioral and emotional sequelae(self) 1 [Book] La proyección del neoliberalismo: Las transformaciones del cine mexicano (1988–2012)(self) 1 [Book] Handbook of Research on Online Discussion-Based Teaching Methods - Lesley Wilton and Clare Brett(self) 2 [Article] Turning up the Lights on Gaslighting by Kate Abramson in Philosophical Perspectives, 2014.(self) 8 [Book] Punishment and Social Structure by Rusche and Kirchheimer(self) 3 [Article] A Strong Leader for A Time of Crisis: Xi Jinping’s Strongman Politics as A Collective Response to Regime Weakness(self) 1 [Book] Nünning, Ansgar and Carola Surkamp - Englische Literatur unterrichten I: Grundlagen und Methoden(self) 2 [Article] Multicultural attitudes and cultural intelligence of preschool teachers, by Çağrı Peköz, Ayşe Işık Gürşimşek , 2020(self) 4 [Book] Statistics for Business and Economics, 4th Edition, 2017, David Anderson, Dennis Sweeney, Thomas Williams, Jim Freeman, Eddie Shoesmith(self) 4 [Article] Evaluation of Occupant Loading in Low- to Moderate-Speed Frontal and Rear-End Motor Vehicle Collisions(self) 1 [Book] Theories of Multiculturalism by George Crowder(self) 6 [BOOK] A Dictionary of Critical Theory (2nd Ed.) by Ian Buchanan(self) 0 "The People’s Charter and the Enigmatic Mr. Maltman Barry", by Paul Martinez (1980) [Article](self) 4 [Book] Rössner, Philipp (ed) 2015 On Commerce and Usury (1524) by Martin Luther. Anthem Press.(self)NSFW 4 [Article] Electronic documents give reproducible research a new meaning(self) 1 [ARTICLE] A Three Square Geometry Problem by Charles Trigg(self) 1 [BOOK] Structure And Mechanism In Protein Science: A Guide To Enzyme Catalysis And Protein Folding (Structural Biology) Reprint Edition(self) 1 [BOOK] Genetic Analysis: Genes, Genomes, and Networks in Eukaryotes 2nd Edition by Philip Meneely(self) 2 [Article] Ultimate Strength Design of Reinforced Concrete Chimmneys. Rumman, W.S., and Sun, R. Y.,1977(self) 1 [book] Signs of civilisation : the characters that changed Europe(self) 1 [Book] Social Class : How Does It Work? by Annette Lareau; Dalton Conley(self) 1 [book] Garner's Dictionary of Legal Usage Third Edition(self) 1 [book] The Integration of MILLION into the English System of Number Words(self) 1 [Book] Connected Speech: The Interaction of Syntax and Phonology - Ellen Kaisse(self) 2 [BOOK] Statistics Using R: An Integrative Approach(self) 4 [Article] Rethinking International Institutionalisation through Treaty Organs by Gloria Fernández Arribas(self) 1 [Book] Parasitic Gaps - Peter W. Culicover and Paul M. Postal(self) 4 [Book] The Global Economy A Concise History Edited By Franco Amatori, Andrea Colli(self) 7 [Article] "Sorting out the ethics of propaganda", Stanley Cunningham(self) 1 [Book] Diet, Life-Style, and Mortality in China: A Study of the Characteristics of 65 Chinese Counties(self) 2 [Article] “Some Degenerate Entrepreneur Fleeing From a Medicine Show”: Judge Holden in The Age of P.T. Barnum(self) 4 [Article] Christoph Witzel and Matteo Toscani, "How to make a #theDress," J. Opt. Soc. Am. A 37, A202-A211 (2020)(self) 4 [Article] [Heinonline] The Emergence and Fallacy of 'China's Debt-Trap Diplomacy' Narrative(self) 5 [Article] [Heinonline] US-Philippines Defense Cooperation during the Duterte Administration: Adjustments and Limitations(self) 8 [Supplement] Polariton Z Topological Insulator, A. V. Nalitov, D. D. Solnyshkov, and G. Malpuech(self) 4 [BOOK] HILL, Christopher. Intellectual Origins of the English Revolution - Revisited.(self) 11 [Article] Post-National Citizenship in Europe: The EU as a Welfare Rights Generator, by Marlene Wind.(self)NSFW 4 [Chapter] The Russian and Chinese Revolutions Compared S. A. Smith from The Oxford Handbook of Modern Russian History(self) 2 [Book] Beyond the Annual Budget: Global Experience with Medium Term Expenditure Frameworks(self) 1 [Book] How Art Can Be Thought: A Handbook for Change - Allan deSouza(self) 1 [Article] Surgical treatment of neuromuscular scoliosis: current techniques(self) 5 [Chapter] Desire, Mimetic Theory, and Original Sin(self) 1 [Book] Dayen, David 2020 Monopolized Life: in the Age of Corporate Power. The New Press.(self) 1 [book] Penetrating Language A Critical Discourse Analysis of Pornography(self) 1 [book] Presentation in Language: Rethinking Speech and Writing(self) 4 [Article] Can someone find the full article for me?(self) 1 [BOOK] Genera Palmarum: the evolution and classification of palms by John Dransfield and Natalie W. Uhl(self) 1 [book] Orthography, Variation, and the Creation of Meaning in Written Japanese(self) 4 [Chapter] The Relative Cycle in Hungarian Declaratives, Julia Bacskai-Atkari(self) 1 [Article] Involvement of MicroRNA Mir15a in Control of Human Ovarian Granulosa Cell Proliferation, Apoptosis, Steroidogenesis, and Response to FSH(self) 1 [Chapter], in Violence in War and Peace: An Anthology by Nancy Scheper-Hughes & Philippe Bourgois (Editors)(self) 1 [Chatper], in Violence in War and Peace: An Anthology by Nancy Scheper-Hughes & Philippe Bourgois (Editors)(self) 1 [book] Oxford Dictionary of Proverbs (6 ed.)(self) 1 [Book] The Origins of the First World War ByJames Joll, Gordon Martel(self) 4 [Chapter] The Feminist Standpoint Theory Reader: Intellectual and Political Controversies(self) 4 [BOOK] Early Events in Monocot Evolution by Paul Wilkin and Simon J. Mayo(self) 5 [Book] BRIGGS, Robin. "Communities of Belief: Cultural and Social Tensions in Early Modern France"(self) 2 [Article] Transgenerational Epigenetics: A Window into Paternal Health Influences on Offspring(self) 3 [Thesis] Earthquake risk assessment of building structures(self) 1 [Article] Factors associated with women achieving and maintaining abstinence from alcohol: a rapid evidence assessment(self) 1 [Thesis/Article] Earthquake risk assessment of building structures(self) 1 [BOOK] Censorship and Propaganda in World War I, 2019(self) 3 [article] A new device producing ambulatory intermittent pneumatic compression suitable for the treatment of lower limb oedema: A preliminary report(self) 1 [Article] Kinetic Modeling and Optimization of the Release Mechanism of Curcumin from Folate Conjugated Hybrid BSA Nanocarrier(self) 1 [Article] Lawrence Transfer Factor: Transference of Specific Immune Memory by Dialyzable Leukocyte Extract from a CD8+ T Cell Line(self) 1 [Book] he Origins of the First World War William Mulligan(self) 1 2 [Article] Biteye: A System for Tracking Bitcoin Transactions(self) 1 [BOOK] A Photographic Atlas of Developmental Biology. 2005. Shirley J. Wright. Morton.(self) 4 [Other] Philippine Daily Inquirer July 16, 2020(self) 1 [BOOK] Letters on Familiar Matters, Volume 1 by Francesco Petrarch(self) 2 [Article] Optical fiber micro-devices made with femtosecond laser by Kaiming Zhou, Fangcheng Shen, Guolu Yin, and Lin Zhang(self) 3 [BOOK] Need a book from Oxford Scholarship online: The Oxford Francis Bacon Vol. 6(self) 1 [BOOK] I need OBSERVATIONAL ASTRONOMY by D. Scott Birney(self) 4 [Article] Homeostatic Plasticity Shapes the Retinal Response to Photoreceptor Degeneration by Shen, Wang, Soto and Kerchensteiner.(self) 1 [Artikel] Homeostatic Plasticity Shapes the Retinal Response to Photoreceptor Degeneration by Shen, Wang, Soto and Kerchensteiner(self) 3 [Article][Request] Anyone have access to this article?(self) 7 [Article] The idea that everything from spoons to stones is conscious is gaining academic credibility (Quartz)(self) 2 [Article](self) 1 [BOOK] Need a german book from JSTOR, "Politisches Skandalmanagement: Strategien der Selbstverteidigung in politischen Affären der Bundesrepublik Deutschland "(self) 1 [BOOK] The Oxford Handbook of Ethics of AI(self) 1 [ARTICLE] Are natural scientists more masculine than humanists? The association patterns between 2D:4D ratio and field of study by Kainz, Sarah; Weitzer, Jakob; Zingale, Stefania; Köllner, Johanna; Albrecht, Cornelia; Gaidora, Angelika; Rudorfer, Marie-Theres; Nürnberger, Anna; Kirchengast, Sylvia(self) 1 [Book] The Crisis of Criticism - Maurice Berger (editor)(self) 2 [Book] Handbook of Nonprescription Drugs: An Interactive Approach to Self-Care, 19th Edition(self) 1 [Book] 'Le discours pornographique' Marie-Anne Paveau, La Musardine, 2014(self) 8 [Article] Allocation and Operation of A Hydropneumatic Energy Storage with Building Microgrid(self) 1 [ARTICLE] L'information internationale en Amérique du Sud: les agences et les réseaux, circa 1874-1919, 2013(self) 1 [Book] The Beaultiful Fall: Fashion, Genius and Glorious Excess in 1970s Paris, Alicia Drake(self) 4 [BOOK] 'Sociology and the Sacred: An Introduction to Philip Rieff's Theory of Culture' Antonius A.W. Zondervan, University of Toronto Press, 2005(self) 1 [Article] Flavell, J. (1987). Speculations about the nature and development of metacognition. In F. Weinert & R. Kluwe (Ed.), Metacognition, motivation, and understanding (p. 21-29). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.(self) 1 [Book] Health Policy Management: A Case Approach 1st Edition(self) 3 [BOOK] Visions and Ideas of Europe during the First World War, 2019(self) 4 [Article] Opioids After Surgery in the United States Versus the Rest of the World The International Patterns of Opioid Prescribing (iPOP) Multicenter Study by Kaafarani, Haytham M. A. MD, MPH*; Han, Kelsey BSc*; El Moheb, Mohamad MD et al(self) 1 [ARTICLE] "Who Is This?" Narration of the Divine Identity of Jesus in Matthew 21:10—17, Andrew E. Nelson(self) 2 [Book] Origins of value: The financial innovations that created modern capital markets(self) 1 [Article] Automation of in-hospital pharmacy dispensing: a systematic review by Sarah Batson, Ana Herranz, Nicolas Rohrbach, Michela Canobbio, Stephen A Mitchell, Pascal Bonnabry(self) 1 [Book] Manual of Pediatric Balance Disorders - Robert C. O'Reilly(self) 1 [Article] Primary adrenal failure and central nervous system lesions: a rare case report of primary adrenal lymphoma by Cristina P. Correia, José G. Freitas, António Martins, Jorge Oliveira(self) 1 [Book] Portable Literature: Reading, Reacting, Writing(self) 5 [BOOK] Lawfare: Law as a Weapon of War - Orde F. Kittrie(self) 3 [Article] Dismantling Restrictive Gender Norms: Can Better Designed Paternal Leave Policies Help? by Negar Omidakhsh, Aleta Sprague, & Jody Heymann(self) 1 [BOOK] Modernization from the Other Shore: American Intellectuals and the Romance of Russian Development by David Engerman(self) 1 [Article] Torsional Response of Reinforced Fibrous Concrete Beams(self) 1 [Book] Language change by Joan Bybee(self) 1 [Book] [Taylor and Francis] The Routledge Handbook of North American Languages(self) 3 [Thesis] "Gas-Surface Desorption and Scattering Processes: Development and Application of the Random Corrugation Model"(self) 1 [Book] Reinventing the Museum: The Evolving Conversation on the Paradigm Shift (2nd Edition)(self) 1 [BOOK] When Police Kill - Franklin Zimring(self) 1 [article] DNA Vaccine Delivery and Improved Immunogenicity Kevin R. Porter and Kanakatte Raviprakash(self) 7 [BOOK] 'The Triumph of the Therapeutic: Uses of Faith after Freud', Philip Rieff, 1973(self) 1 [book] Verbs, Clauses and Constructions: Functional and Typological Approaches(self) 6 [Book] Special Duty: A History of the Japanese Intelligence Community by Richard J. Samuels(self) 7 [BOOK] The Right to Know: Transparency of an Open World by Ann Florini(self) 4 [BOOK] At Home in Two Countries: The Past and Future of Dual Citizenship by Peter J Spiro(self) 1 [BOOK] 'Mesolithic Europe' Geoff Bailey & Penny Spikins, 2008/2010(self) 7 [BOOK] 'Nietzsche and the Clinic: Psychoanalysis, Philosophy, Metaphysics' Jared Russell, 2017(self) 1 [book] Lexical Properties of Selected Non-native Morphemes of English(self) 4 [BOOK] 'Wild Things: Recent advances in Palaeolithic and Mesolithic research' Frederick W. F. Foulds, 2014(self) 2 [Article] Thoracoabdominal Aneurysm Surgery(self) 1 [BOOK] Research handbook on climate governance(self) 2 [Book] High-Performance Compilers for Parallel Computing by Michael Wolfe(self) 3 [Article] Cosmic Cinema: On the Philosophical Films of Terrence Malick(self) 3 [Book] Critical thinking about research.(self) 6 [Supplement] Transposable elements in mammals promote regulatory variation and diversification of genes with specialized functions, Louie N.van de Lagemaat Josette-RenéeLandry Dixie L.MagerPatrikMedstrand(self) 1 [BOOK] Crisis Elections, New Contenders and Government Formation. Breaking the Mould in Southern Europe - Anna Bosco & Susannah Verney(self) 4 [Article] Legal and Ethical Imperatives for Using Certified Sign Language Interpreters in Health Care Settings(self) 5 [Article] Bottles and Bricks: Rethinking the Prohibition against Violent Political Protest by Jennifer Kling & Megan Mitchell(self) 6 [Book] Corruption in International Investment Arbitration - Aloysius Llamzon(self) 5 [Article] Sports prediction and betting models in the machine learning age: The case of Tennis, Wilkes 2019.(self) 1 [chapter] Handwriting Recognition Systems and Applications(self) 3 [Article] Designing robust policies under deep uncertainty for mitigating epidemics, Siddhartha Paul, Jayendran Venkateswaran(self) 4 [ARTICLE] IJSSSP: TLS Certificates of the Tor Network and Their Distinctive Features(self) 1 [Book] Methods in Yeast Genetics and Genomics, 2015 Edition: A CSHL Course Manual(self) 3 [Article] Optically improved mitochondrial function redeems aged human visual decline(self) 4 [ARTICLE] Getting Involved with Time: Notes on the Analysis of a Schizoid Man (PROQUEST)(self) 7 [Book] URGENT If you have access to Project MUSE please help me with finding the pdf of "Where is Ana Mendieta"(self) 4 [Book] Rites, rights and rhythms: a genealogy of musical meaning in Colombia's black pacific by Michael Birenbaum Quintero(self) 1 [BOOK] Corrupt Research: The Case for Reconceptualizing Empirical Management and Social Science by Raymond Hubbard(self) 4 [Thesis] Protecting education from attack: Humanitarian agencies and the implementation of a new global norm in the case of Palestine (Proquest)(self)NSFW 3 [Chapter] from A History of the Soviet Union From the Beginning to Its Legacy By Peter Kenez chapter 11,12,13(self) 2 [Article] The effects of NBPTS‐certified teachers on student achievement + Douglas N. Harris Tim R. Sass(self) 5 [Book] Nietzsche and Contemporary Ethics - Simon Robertson(self) 1 [Book] Smolensk Under the Nazis: Everyday Life in Occupied Russia(self) 1 [Article] [Ingenta] A Study on the Complementary Economy of China and the Philippines Under the New Normal Situation (2010-2016) by Zhu Bin and Jing Lei(self) 4 [Article] Weavers, Merchants and Company: The Handloom Industry in Southeastern India 1750-1790 by S. Arasaratnam(self) 1 [BOOK] Legacies of the Left Turn in Latin America: The Promise of Inclusive Citizenship - Manuel Balán & Françoise Montambeault(self) 6 [Article] Autonomous industrial mobile manipulation (AIMM): past, present and future. Author: Mads Hvilshøj, Simon Bøgh, Oluf Skov Nielsen, Ole Madsen.(self) 1 Removed: Pending moderation REQUEST [eBook] The Assessment Book – Physiotutors Guide to Orthopedic Physical Assessment(self) 1 [Article] [Brill] The Tragedy of Small Power Politics: The Philippines in the South China Sea by Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby and Robert Joseph Medillo(self) 1 [BOOK] Echo and Reverb: Fabricating Space in Popular Music Recording, 1900-1960(self) 5 [Article] EFFECTS OF HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF PLANT OILS AND FATTY ACIDS FOR MYCELIAL GROWTH AND PINHEAD FORMATION OF HERICIUM ERINACEUM(self) 1 [Article] [HeinOnline] "Disposable Deontology: The Death Penalty" by Tung Yin(self) 2 [Article] Efficient conversion of pretreated brewer’s spent grain and wheat bran by submerged cultivation of Hericium erinaceus(self) 1 [Chapter] The Imperial Institute: The state and the development of the natural resources of the Colonial Empire, 1887–1923(self) 1 [Book] Pieter Steyn - Zapuphizo: Voice of the Nagas(self) 3 [Article] Critical Constructivism and Postphenomenology: Ethics, Politics, and the Empirical(self) 5 [BOOK] Political Populism: A Handbook - Reinhard C. Heinisch, Christina Holtz-Bacha, Oscar Mazzoleni (Ed.)(self) 1 [BOOK] Effective Strategies for Protecting Human Rights(self) 4 [BOOK] The Unprovability of Consistency - George Boolos(self) 1 [BOOK] 'The Unity of Hegel's Phenomenology of Spirit: A Systematic Interpretation' Jon Stewart, Northwestern University Press (2000)(self) 1 [Book] Campus Wars by Kenneth J Heineman(self) 3 [Article] Circuit Theory for Waveguiding, Robert E. Collin(self) 1 [Other] [UpToDate] Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in adults: Epidemiology, pathogenesis, clinical features, course, assessment, and diagnosis(self) 2 [BOOK] Quark-Gluon Plasma: From Big Bang to Little Bang(self) 10 [Book] The Representation of (in)definiteness - It's on archive.org but I can't seem to be able to download it(self) 1 [Book] Aginid bayok sa atong tawarik(self) 1 [Book] Political Economy In Macro Economics By Allan Drazen and Political Control of the Economy By Edward R. Tufte(self) 4 [Book] The Routledge Companion to Animal-Human History(self) 4 [Article] Inventing Brands: Opportunities at the Nexus of Semiotics and Intellectual Property by Conley, J. G.(self) 6 [Chapter] MULTICULTURALISM, OR, THE CULTURAL LOGIC OF MULTINATIONAL CAPITALISM by Slavoj Zizek(self) 5 [Article] Value articulation : A framework for the strategic manage- ment of intellectual property by Conley, James G., Peter M.Bican, and Holger Ernst(self) 3 [Book](JSTOR)Why We Believe: Evolution and the Human Way of Being by Agustin Fuentes(self) 1 [Book](self) 1 [Book] Ottoman Explorations of the Nile: Evliya Çelebi’s Map of the Nile and The Nile Journeys in the Book of Travels (Seyahatname) - Dankoff, Tezcan & Sheridan(self) 1 [Article] The Jewels of Adad by FNH Al-Rawi, JA Black(self) 1 [article] A measurement of collective learning effects in Italian high-tech milieux(self) 1 [Article] Parasympathetic activity is reduced during slow-wave sleep, but not resting wakefulness, in patients with chronic fatigue syndrome - Fatt et al., 2020(self) 1 [Book] Linked Data for Libraries, Archives, and Museums, by Seth van Hooland and Ruben Verborgh(self) 4 [Book] The Oxford Handbook of Well-Being and Public Policy - Edited by Matthew D. Adler and Marc Fleurbaey(self) 4 [Book] The Ostrich Communal Nesting System(self) 1 [Article] Protracted Effects of Ketamine Require Immediate Kappa Opioid Receptor Activation and Long‐Lasting Desensitization - Jacobson et al., 2020(self) 1 [Book] The Routledge Handbook to the Political Economy and Governance of the Americas by Olaf Kaltmeier et al.(self) 1 [Article] Dispute Resolution Provisions of the Energy Charter by Philippe Pinsolle(self) 1 [Book] Regional Development and Planning for the 21st Century New Priorities, New Philosophies(self) 4 [BOOK] Need a book from Oxford Scholarship online on International law subject.(self) 1 [Book] Prehispanic Settlement Patterns in the Upper Mantaro and Tarma Drainages, Junín, Peru: Volume 2, The Wanka Region(self) 4 [Book] Varieties of Virtue Ethics - David Carr, James Arthur, Kristján Kristjánsson(self) 4 [Article] Combustion Characteristics of a Swirled Burner Fueled With Waste Cooking Oil(self) 1 [BOOK] 'Beyond pleasure : Freud, Lacan, Barthes' by Margaret Iversen(self) 5 [Article] Empirical Studies of Adolescent Sexual Behavior: A Critical Review(self) 3 [Article]The sexual attitudes, behavior, and relationships of women with histrionic personality disorder(self) 2 Midsommar: Thing Theory [Article](self) 6 [Article] Microdosing psychedelics as cognitive and emotional enhancers.(self) 1 [Book] (Taylor&Francis) Human Evolution An Introduction to Man's Adaptations by Bernard Campbell(self) 1 [Article] Changing settlement patterns in the upper Mantaro Valley, Peru(self) 1 [BOOK] Fighting for Abortion Rights in Latin America Social Movements, State Allies and Institutions - Cora Fernández Anderson(self) 1 [Chapter] from the book The Crimean War: 1853–1856 Winfried Baumgart chapter 1 , 3 ,18(self) 1 [Book] Models of Integrity: Art and Law in Post-Sixties America -Joan Kee(self) 3 [Article] Forensic medical evaluation of children who present with suspected sexual abuse: How do we know what we know? by Grace Wong(self) 4 [book] Grammatical Voice — Fernando Zúñiga and Seppo Kittilä(self) 2 [Article]Naturally occurring 5′ preS1 deletions markedly enhance replication and infectivity of HBV genotype B and genotype C (supplementary materials)(self) 1 [Book] Commercial Real Estate Analysis and Investments (International) 3rd Edition(self) 2 [Book] Best Practices Guide to Residential Construction: Materials, Finishes, and Details by Steven Bliss(self) 2 [Book] Green Logistics: Improving the Environmental Sustainability of Logistics(self) 1 [Article] Black Codes and Slave Codes by Nakia D. Parker(self) 1 [Book] Marsh's Becoming a Teacher(self) 4 [Book] Germans Against Nazism: Nonconformity, Opposition and Resistance in the Third Reich: Essays in Honour of Peter Hoffmann by Francis R. Nicosia and Lawrence D. Stokes(self) 4 [Chapter] The Standard Story and Its Rivals(self) 1 [BOOK]Agrarian and Other Histories Essays for Binay Bhushan Chaudhuri - Edited by Shubhra Chakrabarti and Utsa Patnaik(self) 1 [Book] Regional modernities : the cultural politics of development in India. Ed. K. Sivaramakrishnan; Arun Agrawal(self) 1 [Chapter] Damping in Structures(self) 1 [Book] Gerontología y geriatría: valoración e intervención. Editorial Médica Panamericana. José Carlos Millán-Calentí(self) 1 [Book] Lotman's Cultural Semiotics and the Political - Makarychev & Yatsyk (2017)(self) 2 [Book] (Brill) The Handbook of Austroasiatic Languages (2 vols)(self) 1 [Book] Indian Films in Soviet Cinemas: The Culture of Movie-going After Stalin by Sudha Rajagopalan(self) 4 [BOOK] Decolonizing Theory: Thinking across Traditions by Aditya Nigam (1st edition, Bloomsbury India)(self) 3 [Request] [Article] Cell-by-Cell Deconstruction of Stem Cell Niches(self) 1 [Book] Social research methods- fifth edition, Bryman, Alan (2016)(self) 4 [Book]Chinese and Indian Warfare – From the Classical Age to 1870(self) 1 [Book] PC-Forensik Christoph Willer(self) 1 [Book] Designing for Empathy: Perspectives on the Museum Experience(self) 4 [book] American Communism and Black Americans by Philip Foner(self) 4 [Book] Marcus Franke : War and Nationalism in South Asia The Indian State and the Nagas(self) 8 [BOOK] Natural Resources, Extraction and Indigenous Rights in Latin America. Exploring the Boundaries of Environmental and State-Corporate Crime in Bolivia, Peru, and Mexico(self) 1 [Book] International Human Rights Law (3rd edn) Edited by Daniel Moeckli - Oxford University Press(self) 4 [Book] Participatory Heritage, Edited by Henriette Roued-Cunliffe , Andrea Copeland(self) 4 [BOOK] Political Representation in Southern Europe and Latin America Before and After the Great Recession and the Commodity Crisis - André Freire, Mélany Barragán, Xavier Coller, Marco Lisi, Emmanouil Tsatsanis(self) 4 [BOOK] Latin America and Policy Diffusion From Import to Export - Osmany Porto de Oliveira, Cecilia Osorio Gonnet, Sergio Montero, Cristiane Kerches da Silva Leite(self) 0 [Book] Sexual behaviour in Britain: The National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (1994)(self) 1 [book] Studien zur Hirnpathologie und Psychologie - Pick, Arnold(self) 4 [Other] Special Issue, Blockchain innovation and public policy, Journal of Entrepreneurship and Public Policy: Volume 9 Issue 2(self) 4 [BOOK] baby jails: the fight to end the incarceration of refugee children in america/ jstor account??(self) 1 [Journal] Special Issue: Blockchain innovation and public policy, Journal of Entrepreneurship and Public Policy, Volume 9, Issue 2(self) 1 [Book] Blackstone's EU Treaties and Legislation 2019-2020 (20th ed)(self) 3 [article] Deep Graph Kernels(self) 5 [Book] Routledge Handbook of the South Asian Diaspora - By Joya Chatterji, David Washbrook(self) 4 [Book] Growth and distribution(self) 1 [BOOK] The Radical Left in Europe in the Age of Austerity - Babak Amini(self) 4 [Book] Political Myth by Christopher Flood (Routledge) (2002)(self) 2 [Article] Robotic Assisted Radical Cystectomy vs Open Radical Cystectomy: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis + Niranjan J Sathianathen et al(self) 1 [Book] Folk Art Potters of Japan Beyond an Anthropology of Aesthetics (Routledge) by Brian Moeran(self) 1 [book] Revolution: How the Bicycle Reinvented Modern Britain(self) 5 [BOOK] Radical Left Movements in Europe - Magnus Wennerhag, Christian Fröhlich, Grzegorz Piotrowski(self) 4 [BOOK] Party System Change, the European Crisis and the State of Democracy - Marco Lisi(self) 5 [BOOK] Routledge Handbook of Contemporary European Social Movements. Protest in Turbulent Times - Cristina Flesher Fominaya, Ramon A. Feenstra(self) 4 [Book] Attorney-Client Privilege in International Arbitration(self) 1 [Article] An Alternative Ontology of Food Beyond Metaphysics by Lisa Heldke. Published in Radical Philosophy Review, Vol 15, Issue 1, 2012(self) 1 [Book] Bello, Walden 2005 Dilemmas of Domination: The Unmaking of the American Empire. Zed Books, 2005.(self) 1 [Article] Owning the PastOwning the Past Reply to Stokes(self) 1 [Article] Owning the PastOwning the Past Reply to Stokes(self) 1 [Book] McQuire, Scott. Crossing the Digital Threshold. Brisbane: Australian Key Centre for Cultural and Media Policy, Faculty of Humanities, Griffith University, 1997.(self) 3 [Book] Request: Migration and the Refugee Dissensus in Europe: Borders, Security and Austerity by Nicos Trimikliniotis.(self) 9 [Article] Masculinity in videogames: the gendered gameplay of Silent Hill(self) 1 [BOOK] 'Truth games : lies, money, and psychoanalysis' by John Forrester, Harvard University Press, 2000(self) 1 [Book] Osterloh, Jörg, und Clemens Vollnhals. NS-Prozesse Und Deutsche Öffentlichkeit: Besatzungszeit, Frühe Bundesrepublik Und DDR.(self) 2
submitted by jaylenholt to ebookleaksdownload [link] [comments]

XRP Isn’t A Security, Declares Former CFTC Chairman

XRP Isn’t A Security, Declares Former CFTC Chairman
https://preview.redd.it/8yehv8lzsce51.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=69f0a6eb4973a5a9974e42d15709434719a26a81
When Chris Giancarlo was the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission he became a rock-star of sorts in certain corners of the cryptocurrency community, helping establish criteria that eventually led to bitcoin and ethereum being declared commodities, more like coffee or sugar than stock in a company. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission largely followed suit, eventually also declaring that bitcoin and ether, the cryptocurrency powering the ethereum blockchain weren’t securities.
Now chairman emeritus Giancarlo, who was deemed “Crypto Dad” following an impassioned speech he gave to Congress where he credited bitcoin for finally getting his kids interested in finance, is at it again, having co-written a detailed argument published this morning in the International Financial Law Review for why XRP, the cryptocurrency formally known as “ripples,” was also not a security. The only problem is he’s no longer a regulator. In fact, his employer is on the payroll of Ripple, the largest single owner of XRP, whose co-founders actually created the cryptocurrency.
The bombshell paper, titled, “Cryptocurrencies and U.S. Securities Laws: Beyond Bitcoin and Ether,” co-authored by commodities lawyer Conrad Bahlke of New York law firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP, methodically reviews the criteria of the Howey Test, established by the SEC in 1946 to determine whether something is a security, and point-by-point argues that XRP does not qualify. Rather, the paper argues, like its name would indicate, cryptocurrency is a currency of perhaps more interest to the Federal Reserve and central banks than securities regulators.
What’s at stake here to the cryptocurrency world cannot be overestimated. XRP is now the fourth largest cryptocurrency by market cap, with $5.9 billion worth of the asset in circulation according to cryptocurrency data site Messari. While Ripple was valued at $10 billion according to its most recent round of funding, the company continues to fund itself in part by selling its deep war chest of 55.6 billion XRP, coincidentally valued at the same amount as the company itself.
Not only could an eventual decision by the SEC to classify—or not classify—XRP as a security impact the untold individual owners of the cryptocurrency, but other clients using Ripple services that don’t rely on the cryptocurrency, including American Express, Santander, and SBI Holdings could stand to be impacted positively or negatively depending on the decision. After all if XRP were to be rescinded it would be a huge cost to their software provider. If Giancarlo is right though, Ripple could end up being one of the most valuable startups in fintech.
“Ultimately, under a fair application of the Howey test and the SEC’s presently expanding analysis, XRP should not be regulated as a security, but instead considered a currency or a medium of exchange,” Giancarlo and Bahlke argue in the paper. “The increased adoption of XRP as a medium of exchange and a form of payment in recent years, both by consumers and in the business-to-business setting, further underscores the utility of XRP as a bona fide fiat substitute.”
Giancarlo was nominated to be a commissioner of the CFTC by then-President Barack Obama in 2013. In 2015, he helped lead the thinking behind the CFTC’s decision that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were commodities, paving the way for the SEC’s related comments that neither bitcoin nor ethereum are securities. Then, at the height of the 2017 cryptocurrency bubble President Trump nominated him to be Chairman of the CFTC, where he oversaw the creation of a number of bitcoin futures projects, including at CME Group and the short-lived effort at Cboe.
While many blame the creation of bitcoin futures for popping the 2017 price bubble, which almost hit $20,000 before halving today, others have seen the works as a fundamental process of maturity, helping pave the way for more sophisticated crypto-enabled financial offerings. Giancarlo’s last day in office at the CFTC was in 2019, after which he promptly got involved helping envision the future of assets issued on a blockchain. In November he joined as an advisor to American Financial Exchange, using ethereum to create a Libor alternative. The following January he co-founded the Digital Dollar Project leading the push to use blockchain at the Federal Reserve and now it would seem he’s hoping to influence the classification of XRP as he did for bitcoin and ethereum, but from the other side of regulation.
Importantly however, a footnote in the report discloses that not only is Giancarlo and Bahlke’s firm, Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP counsel to Ripple Labs, but they “relied on certain factual information provided by Ripple in the preparation of this article.” While it’s impossible to parse what information came from the co-authors and what came from Ripple, the resulting legal argument is fascinating, even if it does leave room for doubt.
The Howey test Giancarlo uses to bolster his arguments is a three-pronged definition used by the SEC, none of which he says apply to XRP. The first prong, is that an investment contract should be implied or explicitly stated between the issuer of the asset, in this case XRP and the owner, in which money exchanges hands. “The mere fact that an individual holds XRP does not create any relationship, rights or privileges with respect to Ripple any more than owning Ether would create a contract with the Ethereum Foundation, the organization that oversees the Ethereum architecture,” he writes.
This does however overlook the fact that OpenCoin, credited on Ripple’s own site in 2013 for creating XRP (then tellingly described as “ripples”), was run by many of the same people that founded Ripple. The original creators of XRP then donated the vast majority of the assets to Ripple, which they also ran, creating a sense of distance, tacit though it may be. The actual data around the creation of XRP was also muddled by a glitch in the code that means unlike bitcoin and ethereum the crucial genesis data is no longer attached to the rest of the ledger. The rebranding of “ripples” as XRP further extended the sense of distance between XRP and Ripple, followed by an aggressive campaign to get media to stop describing the cryptocurrency as “Ripple’s XRP.”
With so much distance between the company that actually created XRP and the company that now owns more than half of it, one would be forgiven for wondering, if there was an implied contract between OpenCoin and XRP owners, does the donation from one group of people at one company to a very similar group of people at another company sever that responsibility? In spite of the sense of distance created by Ripple between itself and the cryptocurrency its co-founders created, a number of active lawsuits alleging securities violations have been filed. In all fairness though, Giancarlo appears to recognize this prong may not be Ripple’s strongest defense and concludes the section, hedging: “Even if XRP were to satisfy one or two of the “prongs” of the Howey test, it does not satisfy all three factors such that XRP is an investment contract subject to regulation as a security.”
The second prong of the Howey test stipulates that there can be no “common enterprise” between shareholders or a shareholder and the company. While refuting both relationships, Giancarlo curiously goes onto to write that “given the juxtaposition between XRP’s intended use as a liquidity tool, its more general use to transfer value and its potential as a speculative asset, XRP holders who utilize the coins for different purposes have divergent interests with respect to XRP.”
Ironically, there has always been a widely held belief that owning a cryptocurrency would unify interests around a single goal: to co-create the infrastructure that lets the cryptocurrency exist and ensure it was vibrant and diverse. Meanwhile, XRP, in spite of its aggressive supporters on social media, is one of the least diverse ecosystems, with the vast majority of serious development being done within Ripple. If XRP owners aren’t expecting an increase in value from the work being done by Ripple, they certainly aren’t nearly as involved in helping build that future as are owners of bitcoin and ethereum.
In a related issue, the third prong of the Howey test stipulates that “no reasonable expectation of profit should be derived from the efforts of Ripple,” according to the paper. Supporting this position, Giancarlo writes: “Though Ripple maintains a sizable stake of the XRP supply and certainly has a pecuniary interest in the value of its holdings, it is not enough to suggest that a mutual interest in the value of an asset gives rise to an expectation of profits as contemplated by Howey.” Again, this strains credulity.
According to its own site, Ripple currently has access to 6.4% of all the XRP ever created. But that doesn’t count the 49.2% of the total XRP Ripple owns, but is locked in a series of escrow accounts that become periodically available to Ripple and Ripple alone. Adding those two percentages together leaves a float of only about 44% of XRP that has been distributed for public ownership. For some comparison, Facebook went public the same year XRP was created and has a 99% float, according to FactSet data, meaning almost all of its stock is in the hands of traders.While Ripple does also have more traditional stock, this distribution shows that Ripple might not be as distributed as it claims.
While it’s perhaps no surprise that Giancarlo would come out on the side of his own client, there’s also plenty of other reasons to believe his argument may in fact hold water. In February 2018, the notoriously compliant exchange Coinbase added support for XRP, something it would unlikely do if it were concerned it might accidentally be selling an unlicensed security. Perhaps most tellingly though, Ripple has also been granted a difficult-to-obtain BitLicense from the New York Department of Financial Services, giving it the blessing of a respected regulator. However, while the license was granted after then-superintendent Benjamin Lawsky stepped down from the regulator, it's perhaps no coincidence that a year later he joined Ripple on its board of directors and is now active in the cryptocurrency space. Perhaps a similar fate is in store for Giancarlo.
Editor’s note: This article has been updated to clarify that Ripple Labs is a client of Giancarlo’s law firm.
submitted by wazzocklegless to u/wazzocklegless [link] [comments]

How I plan to identify and sell the top of the next market cycle.

In this post I will share with you some of the strategies I will use to identify the next market cycle top so I can sell for maximum profits (and of course buy back in later in the subsequent bear market!) In the first part of this post I will discuss the resources I will use and in the second part I will discuss tactics in selling and risk management.

Indicators

As the bull run begins to drag on and the price of ETH starts getting closer and closer to $10k I will begin to start watching many of the data science charts over at Look into Bitcoin. This will not be the only source I will use since there are great custom tools on TradingView too as well as more subjective indicators such as friends and family talking crypto and hearing about crypto again in the mainstream media. I’d also like to note that many of the indicators I will be looking at will be Bitcoin focused despite my ETH centred portfolio. Like it or not, this market is still Bitcoin dominated and despite the many proponents of an ETH flippening (myself included), it is quite likely that we will not see it this cycle due to the macro investing environment favouring assets which are good stores of value to weather the uncertainty. Ultimately, Bitcoin has the best store of value meme in crypto and that will be very powerful in the coming years.
I think it is likely that the time for Ethereum or a network like Ethereum with a yielding asset (ETH under ETH 2.0) and a native economy of DeFi, DApps, NFTs and much more will be once all of the stock market uncertainty is over and investors are ready to take on more risk again. I am of course still expecting Ethereum and altcoins to outperform Bitcoin this cycle. However, I think that Bitcoin losing the number 1 spot will be more likely to happen between 2023 and 2030 rather than in the next 2-3 years. I hope I am wrong though.
While most of the indicators on Looking into Bitcoin are useful, I will list the ones I’ll be focusing on the most here:
And finally my favourite, the Golden Ratio Multiplier. This indicator has been remarkably accurate at predicting tops using the golden ratio (1.6) and the fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) multiplied by the 350 day moving average. With each market cycle, the 350 day moving average is multiplied by the next number down in the fibonacci sequence. For example, the 2013 peak only just passed above the 350 day moving average multiplied by 8 and the 2017 bull market just touched the 350 day moving average multiplied by 5. So if this indicator is to work in the next cycle, we can expect the price to slightly exceed 3 times the value of the 350 day moving average. This indicator also worked for Ethereum in the 2017 bull run. While there is no graph for it, on the 13th of January, when ETH hit a peak of $1,419, the 350 day moving average was at $270. $270 multiplied by 5 is $1,350. If you sold at $1,350 you sold incredibly close to the top and I don’t think that any macro traders/long term traders would complain about that timing.
I’d like to note that while indicators like the Golden Ratio Multiplier factors in for less explosive growth each cycle, not all of the above indicators do. So be cautious of this when you think the peak is near as it may be closer than you think. In saying that, there is a lot of luck involved so I should also point out that it also might not be closer than you think. However, it would be better to sell before the peak at say $10,000/BTC as of 2017 than to be left holding all of your crypto when the bear market begins since Bitcoin didn’t spend much time above $10,000/BTC after the $20K peak. Ultimately it is up to you to decide your risk appetite and how well you want to try and time the market. For me, I will definitely be on the conservative side so that I don’t miss the boat completely and hopefully I will be able to sell most of my crypto just before we peak rather than afterwards.

Risk Management

Since timing the top requires a lot of luck, a good method of mitigating the risk is to spread out when you sell. I’m going to share with you my personal strategy but I recommend that you create your own strategy or use this as a basis from which you can use to adjust and tweak it to optimally suit your situation. If you have a large stack, you will probably want to sell early since you might not need such spectacular gains to lock in some life changing money. On the other hand, if you have a smaller stack or if you are younger, you can afford to take more risk and might want to try and time the absolute peak a bit better to get that much closer to making some life changing money. Personally, while my stack isn’t very big in dollar terms, it is a significant % of my net worth and so I don’t have a high risk tolerance with it (at least relative to other people in crypto!) For this reason I will be selling a little bit on the early side.
My plan has three pots of crypto. 20% of my crypto I will hold indefinitely since I very strongly believe in the long term prospect of ETH and BTC as investments. This way if I time the markets terribly, I will always have some skin in the crypto game. The second pot of crypto is 40% which I will sell on the way up to take some profits and I don’t intend on putting this money back into crypto. Initially I will be selling very small amounts of this 40% and as the indicators listed above get closer and closer to calling a top, I will sell larger proportions of this crypto. I haven’t set specific target numbers since things change fast in this space and I feel like the best decisions in this case are made in the moment. For example, estimating a market top is hard when it is 2-3 years away, but it is much easier when it is just months or weeks away. Once again, this is just personal preference. Many of you will find that setting targets now makes it easier for you to pull the trigger and take some profits when everyone else is calling $1M BTC while it is at $100K or calling for $100K ETH when the current price might be $10K.
Finally, the last 40% I will sell all at once when I feel like we are at the top and I am confident that the price will be lower a year on from that point in time. With this 40% I will try and buy back during the bear market with the help of many of the same indicators I listed above from Look into Bitcoin. I will also use some indicators which I didn’t mention above since some are better designed at identifying market bottoms. My goal is to be able to buy back the number of BTC and ETH I held before I sold anything with this 40% (plus the 20% I didn’t sell). This is a big ask but it is better in life to set hard goals that seem unattainable or unrealistic than it is to set easy goals.
To summarise my portfolio strategy, 20% of my portfolio is an indefinite hold, 40% I will sell on the way up and I do not intend on buying back into crypto with this money so I can avoid being over-exposed to crypto. The last 40% I will use to try and sell the top and buy the bottom.

Closing Notes

As a closing note I would like to say that it will be important to be aware of the power of greed and FOMO. Do not under-estimate these emotions and try to remain a grounded and rational investor. Don’t be scared to take profits. I know from experience trading altcoins that it is better to exit a position early and miss out on another 100% price increase than it is to hold through a bear market and take >90% losses. If you go into this bullrun telling yourself you will take profits on the way up, you will have no reason to regret any early sales since you will know that you made a rational trade and not an emotional trade.
submitted by Tricky_Troll to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Just Hit $300k NW! 26 Years Old. $82k Income. Here's My Story.

Hi guys. I've been a subscriber and lurker here for over 5 years and one of my favorite things to read are the "how you got to where you are" stories. I told myself that once I hit $300k, I'd tell the first ~5 years of my FIRE story. I hate lack of transparency and ambiguity, so I'll try to be as open as I can. I tried to include everything that I would want to know if I was reading someone else's post. Feel free to ask me any questions.
There is a TLDR at the bottom of this post. You probably want to read that first to see if you're interested before investing your time in conquering this wall of text.
Also, you can skip the wall of text below about my childhood/college/relationship stuff if you're just interested in the "numbers". I just wanted to include this background to provide context and credibility.
EDITS: 1) Added a little more explanation in the budget section about spendng $200/month on food for 2 people since that has been a recurring question. 2) Added a section on my post-FIRE aspirations since that was another question that people kept asking.
TLDR: Hit $300k net worth at age 26. Frugal, middle-class upbringing. Got a full scholarship to top in-state university. Worked 2-3 jobs every week while attending college to pay for living expenses and saved the rest. Got degree in business. Graduated with no debt and $60k saved up. Parents gave me $10k as a graduation gift. Made $55k/year at my first full-time job after college. 4 years later I currently make $82k at the same company. My monthly budget is ~$820/month. I have been dating my SO for 9 years, living with her for 4 years, and I'm getting married to her in a couple months. She's dead-set on the FIRE path as well. #blessed
submitted by aFinancialWreck to financialindependence [link] [comments]

Set and Drift | Analysis - Estimating Future Income from the FIRE Portfolio

Cultivate an asset which the passing of time itself improves. – Seneca, Letters XV
Overview
The focus of the voyage to financial independence so far has been designing the portfolio, and measuring the distance still to travel. There is more basic question to be asked as the journey progresses - will the portfolio produce the income targets set for it, or will something need to change?
Currently, the income estimates from the portfolio targets - $67 000 from a short-term target of around $1.6 million and $83 000 from a target of around $2.0 million in several years - are set on an assumption of a total portfolio return of 4.19 per cent.
That does not mean, however, that the portfolio will simply automatically produce an income of that level. Just pointing the ship in the direction of travel is not enough. This is because the total return assumes both capital growth and distributions or interest.
This analysis examines what income the portfolio is likely to produce when the targets are achieved, and assesses whether or not selling down or changing the portfolio in other ways to meet the income goals may be necessary.
To answer this question, history and three different methods of estimating the potential income produced by the portfolio are reviewed.
Approach #1 - Navigation by landmarks
The first approach is to simply use what is already known to establish one’s position.
Previous analyses have discussed the overall trends in portfolio distributions, and reached some approximate estimates of the likely underlying level of distributions. These estimates differ according to the precise method chosen, and time period considered. So far, these analyses have established that the portfolio appears to be generating between:
This is healthy progress, however, both of these figures are short of the Objective #1 income requirement of $67 000 per year (or $5600 per month), and even further from the projection of $83 000 (or $6 900 per month) under Objective #2.
Will the future look like the past?
These historical figures are useful because they are real data based on holdings in the actual portfolio. Their disadvantages are that they are backward-looking. This has two possible impacts.
First, the growth of more than 50 per cent in the total portfolio size over even the past three years means that the level of historical distributions will underestimate the income generation potential from the now larger portfolio. In short, this is like trying to estimate interest from a bank account by looking at your balance three years ago.
Second, the distributions of three or four years ago will reflect past asset allocations, and investment products. As an example of this, two years ago the portfolio contained over $55 000 invested in Ratesetter’s peer to peer lending platform. This was earning an average income return of 9.1 per cent. Today, Ratesetter is less than half of this size, due to a slow asset reallocation process and withdrawals as loans mature.
This suggests a purely backward view of the actual achieved distributions may be incomplete and misleading.
Taking an average distribution rate approach
The other potential way of estimating the income return of the portfolio is to use the average distribution rate of the portfolio in the past.
The rate is calculated as total distributions over a defined period divided by the average portfolio level over the same period.
This eliminates any errors from the first impact discussed above of growing portfolio growth size, as it is a rate rather than a level measure. It does not eliminate the second impact. For example, higher interest rates meant that cash holdings in 2013-14 could make up over third of total distributions, a position not likely to reoccur in the short or even medium term.
Yet it still may be an approximate guide because while overall portfolio asset allocation has shifted in the past two and half years, it has remained within some broad bounds. As an example, total equity holdings were at 70% of the portfolio both 5 and 10 years ago. Additionally, using a median long-term average of 4.4 per cent will tend to reduce the impact of one-off changes and outlier data points.
[Chart]
As established in Wind in the Sails the average distribution rate over the past two decades has been around 4.4 per cent.
This implies that the portfolio would produce:
-$5 900 per month or $70 300 per annum income when the portfolio is at Objective #1 (e.g. this suggests that the target income at Objective #1 would be met, with around $3 000 to ‘spare’). - $7 300 per month or $87 100 per annum income when the portfolio is at Objective #2 (e.g. as above it suggests meeting Objective #2 would produce around $4 000 more income than actually targeted).
An interesting implication of this is that the portfolio has been producing distributions (at 4.4 per cent) at a rate that is higher than the overall rate of assumed long-term total return (around 4.2 per cent).
This is consistent with the fact that the Vanguard funds, and to some extent shares and other ETFs have been realising and distributing capital growth, not just income. This means that if I truly believe my long-term total return forecast is more accurate than the distributions estimate, I would need to re-invest the difference, to ensure I was not drawing down the portfolio at a higher rate than intended.
Approach #2 - Navigation by 'dead reckoning'
A different approach to reaching an income estimate from the portfolio is to forget about the actual history of the portfolio, and look to what the record shows about the average distribution rate from the asset classes themselves.
That is, to construct an hypothetical estimate of what the portfolio should produce, based on external historical data on average income from the individual portfolio components of Australian shares, international shares, and fixed interest.
To do this, estimates of the long term income generated by each of the asset classes in the portfolio are needed. For this ‘dead reckoning approach’ I have used the following estimates.
Table 1 - Asset class and portfolio income assumptions
Asset class Allocation Estimated income Source Australian shares 45% 4.0% RBA, 1995-2019, May Chart Pack International shares 30% 2.0% RBA, 1995-2019, May Chart Pack Bonds 15% 1.0% Dimson, Marsh and Staunton Triumph of the Optimists 101 Years of Global Investment Returns, Table 6.1 Gold/Bitcoin 10% 0% N/A Total portfolio 100% 2.55%
This analysis suggests that at the target allocation for the portfolio, based on long-term historical data, it should produce a income return of around 2.6%.
This equates to:
These figures are also well short of the income needs set, and so imply a need to sell down assets significantly to capture some of the portfolio's capital growth.
Abstractions and obstructions
Of course these figures are highly averaged and make some simplifications. Year to year management will not benefit from such stylised and smooth average returns. Income will be subject to large variations in distribution levels and capital growth will vary across asset classes and individual holdings.
Another simplification is that is analysis does not include the value of franking credits. If it is assumed that Australian equities continued to pay out their historical level of dividends, and the franking credit rate remains at the historical average of around 70 per cent then Australian shares dividends should yield closer to 5.2 per cent, lifting the total income return of the portfolio to around 3.1 per cent. In turn, this would marginally reduce the capital sell-down required. Adjusting for this impact means the portfolio income would be $4100 per month at Objective #1, and $5100 per month Objective #2
Yet these assumptions can be challenged. It is possible that the overall dividend yield of the Australian market will fall and converge with other markets. This would be particularly likely to happen if further changes to dividend imputations or the treatment franking credits to occur. It could also occur due to a maturing and deepening of Australian equity markets and domestic investment opportunities available to Australian firms. Shorter term, uncertainty around the future ability of shareholders to fully benefit from franking credits could encourage a payout of credits currently held by Australian firms.
Approach #3 - Cross-checking the coordinates
Due to these simplifications and assumptions, it is appropriate to cross-check the results of one method with other available data. An alternative to either a purely historical approach using distributions received, or the stylised hypothetical above discussed in Approach #2, is relying on tax data.
Specifically, taxable investment income can be estimated as the sum of the return items for partnerships and trusts, foreign source income and franking credits (i.e. items 13, 20 and 24) in a tax return.This has been previously discussed here.
Using this data is - of course - not independent of my own records of distributions. It's benefit is that it strictly relies on verified data provided in tax calculations. This will include income distributions and realised capital gains from within Vanguard funds, for example, but will not pick up unrealised capital gains.
As with Approach #1, as the portfolio has changed in size and composition the absolute historical levels of taxable will not necessarily produce the best estimate of the expected level of distributions looking forward. For example, because it is drawing on a period in which the portfolio was smaller, a five year average of investment income would suggest future annual investment income of $32 300 or $2 700 per month.
So instead an 'average rate' approach can be used to overcome this. Over of the past five years, the portfolio has produced an annual taxable investment income of around 3.5 per cent of the value of portfolio. This in turn implies an average taxable investment income of:
Once again, these estimates imply the existence of a significant income gap remaining at reaching both portfolio objectives.
Summary of results
So far historical data from the portfolio and three different approaches have been set out to seek to answer the question: how much income is the portfolio likely to produce?
Comparing estimates and income requirements
These individual estimates (blue) and the average of all estimates (green) are summarised in the charts below, and compared to the monthly income requirements (red) of both of the portfolio objectives. The chart below sets out the estimates for Objective #1.
[Chart]
The following chart sets out the same data and projections for the portfolio when it reaches Objective #2 (a portfolio total of $1 980 000).
[Chart]
The analysis shows that:
This implies that at the $1.6 million target of Objective #1, a small portion of any portfolio gains (around 0.6% of the value of the total portfolio) would need to be sold each year to meet this income gap. An identical result applies at the Objective #2, around 0.6% of value of the total portfolio would need to be sold annually.
Another intriguing implication of the reaching the average estimates is that it allows for an approximation of the required portfolio level to rely entirely on portfolio income, and avoid any sale of assets. At both portfolio Objectives the average of all estimation approaches indicate portfolio income of around 3.5 per cent.
Reversing this figure for the target portfolio income (e.g. for $67 000 at Objective #1 is 0.035/67000) implies a portfolio need of $1.91 million. For the higher target income for Objective #2, the implied portfolio required to not draw down capital is close to $2.4 million. This would require many additional years of future paid work to achieve.
Trailing clouds of vagueness
There are many caveats, inexactitudes and simplifications that should loom large in interpreting these results. The level of future returns as well as their income and capital components are unknowable and volatile.
In particular, the volatility of returns introduces key sequence of return risks that are simplified away by the reliance on deceptively stable historical estimates or averages. Particularly sharp movement in asset prices could change the asset allocation. Legislative or market changes could change the balance of income and capital appreciation targeted by Australian firms.
For these reasons, the analysis does not make me consider any particular remedial action. It indicates that under a range of assumptions and average outcomes, there will need to be a sale of some investments to meet the portfolio incomes targeted.
The same analysis shows that the superficially attractive choice to live only off portfolio income would in reality mean aiming for a target around 20 per cent higher - needing an extra $300 000 to $400 000 - potentially adding many years to the journey.
The relatively small scale of the required sales is the most surprising outcome of this analysis. Selling around 0.6 per cent of the portfolio annually does not on its face appear to be a high drawdown in most market conditions.
Another potential issue to consider is what this result means for asset allocation. There is no doubt that history would suggest that the income gap could be reduced by either reducing the bond allocation, or lower yielding international shares.
To give a sense of the magnitudes of this - using the 'dead reckoning' Approach #2 set out above - allocating 100 per cent of the equity portfolio to Australian shares would produce around $900 per month (or $10 300 per year) additional distributions at the Objective #1 portfolio of $1.6 million.
In theory, this domestic shares only option would all but close the income gap. Yet the benefits of diversification and risk reduction bonds and international shares offer make this a trade-off to consider, not a clear choice. At present, my plan would be to revisit this issue at my annual review of the portfolio asset allocation.
In the meantime, having produced these estimates has helped starting to think in more concrete terms about the draw down phase, its challenges and mechanics. In a small way, this seems to clear some of the clouds away, and enable me to glimpse some possible futures more clearly.
The post and graphs can be viewed here.
Note: The historical average estimate for this purpose has been proportionally adjusted to increase based on the increased size of the portfolio between now and reaching Objective #2
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

Atomic Wallet Coin is SHOCKINGLY Undervalued ~750k Market Cap


Hey, /cryptomoonshots! Its my first post here (woo!)

I’ve been lucky enough to have found QNT and LTO from this subreddit. I’ve found a third project that looks extremely interesting and I’d like to share my research here. My background is in digital marketing and this project stood out to me, especially from a marketing and biz dev perspective, which I’ll share below.

Feel free to correct the record if I’ve posted anything incorrect and I will update it (I’m a human being, I make mistakes, okay!) Additionally, the CEO is constantly answering questions on Telegram!

The project is Atomic Wallet Coin. $AWC



TL;DR IS AT THE BOTTOM. ALWAYS DYOR. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.

WHAT IS ATOMIC WALLET?

Atomic Wallet is a non custodial crypto wallet for desktop and mobile. Users can exchange and buy 300+ cryptocurrencies from a single interface. The wallet can perform cross-chain atomic swaps.

It’s an exchange built into a wallet.

Shapeshift and Changelly are partnered with Atomic to add additional currency swap pairs + fair rates. Fiat/crypto gateway is supported directly through the app.

Atomic has over 40,000 monthly active users and boasts 150k+ downloads.

The project is one of the first to migrate over to Binance chain. They are currently in the process of getting listed on Binance DEX. Half of their supply will remain ERC-20 and the other half migrated to BEP-2.
https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1119047237076541440
https://twitter.com/atomicwallet/status/1119242545706434560
https://github.com/Atomicwallet
http://atomicwallet.io

20 FULL TIME EMPLOYEES AND CEO WITH PREVIOUS TRACK RECORD

Konstantin Gladych self funded Atomic Wallet with his own funds. He previously was the CEO and co-founder of Changelly, a fully compliant crypto exchange service which has been around since 2013 and has serviced over 2 million users across the world.

“Changelly's trading algorithms are integrated into large and reputable trading platforms, such as Binance, Bittrex, Poloniex and HitBTC” - Wikipedia

Konstantin holds a PhD in data science/machine learning and left his CEO position at Changelly to develop Atomic Wallet full time.

The team currently consists of 20 full-time employees - 6 developers, 7 support and community managers, 6 marketing and business development, and 1 designer.

https://linkedin.com/in/gladkos
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Changelly
https://www.crunchbase.com/person/konstantin-gladych
https://community.binance.org/t/proposal-for-listing-atomic-wallet-token-awc-on-binance-dex/2093

APPROVED WALLET BY NEO FOUNDATION, ZCASH, GEMINI, LISK, AND OTHERS

Atomic Wallet is trusted by many household names in crypto. This does NOT mean Atomic is “partnered” with these companies, however it adds massive credibility to AWC considering they trust it enough to add it as a recommended wallet on their websites.

Take a look for yourself:

https://neo.org/client
https://z.cash/upgrade/sapling/
https://gemini.com/dolla
https://twitter.com/LiskHQ/status/1121357080173133824

95,000+ UNIQUE VISITORS PER MONTH TO ATOMICWALLET.IO


traffic statistics for atomicwallet.io [pic]

Atomic Wallet has an A+ marketing team.

Here’s a quick snapshot of how well atomicwallet.io is performing (see above). They’ve gone from 0 to 95k unique visitors per month in well under one year. Purely from Google search traffic. This doesn’t include traffic from Twitter, Facebook, and other sources. It also was during the worst bear market in crypto history, when these search terms would be at a low.

Let’s see how Atomic Wallet measures up against some well-known sites:

myetherwallet.com 802k/mo
Ripple.com 580k/mo
Ledger.com 401k/mo
Exodus.io 172k/mo
Coinmama.com 165k/mo
Shapeshift.io 149k/mo
Electrum.org 125k/mo
Atomicwallet.io 95k/mo
Freewallet.org 70.9k/mo
Trustwallet.com (Binance owned) 24k/mo

Atomic Wallet has virtually caught up to or exceeded many of it’s competitors in terms of traffic in well under a year. Turning this traffic into downloads/new users is child’s play. It’s one of the reasons this company with 20+ employees is already profitable in just a few short months.

So, how is this site getting so many visitors?

Here are a few search terms that Atomicwallet.io ranks on page 1 for on Google.

Open up a new tab, visit Google.com and see for yourself!

“EOS wallet”
“ETH wallet”
“BNB wallet”
“Buy Bitcoin”
“Ethereum wallet”
“XRP wallet”
“Ripple wallet”
“DASH wallet”

+27,100+ additional search terms that bring in a total of 94,700 visitors per month. Purely. from. Google. Search.

traffic statistics for atomicwallet.io [pic]

$AWC TOKENOMICS

Atomic’s website does a thorough job of explaining the tokenomic details of the $AWC coin. The tokenomics mirror the standard use-cases you would expect from an exchange token (Bibox, KCS, etc.) The CEO recently expressed his interest in adding staking rewards for AWC holders. He is also exploring the idea of having IEO-type listings for Atomic Wallet users/holders in the future. New projects could theoretically debut directly on their platform and be traded against $AWC, similar to how Bitmax runs IEOs.

Currently, 90% of the circulating supply is locked up and Konstantin has announced his intention to buy back and burn tokens with company profits.

Here are a few of the use cases for $AWC:

The team is looking to make $AWC directly tradeable from the app in the future.

With thousands of new Atomic Wallet users per month, this is an incredibly exciting feature.

https://atomicwallet.io/token

FINAL THOUGHTS

Atomic Wallet will grow to an active user base in the millions. Every crypto holder needs a wallet. Atomic provides a user-friendly wallet for newbies getting their feet wet in crypto. Most newbs aren’t going out and buying a LedgeTrezor right away. Building an exchange directly into the wallet provides a safe and easy way to trade crypto assets.

The number of cryptocurrency users and addresses are growing exponentially. Atomic wallet was created during the bear market. They are perfectly positioned to take a massive share of the increasingly competitive crypto wallet market during a bull market/alt coin season.

In my opinion, they’re on track to be the #1 desktop/mobile multi-crypto wallet.

As someone who is experienced in search engine/digital marketing, these guys have an ace marketing team. Even beating or ranking just below Coinbase for many competitive Google search terms in just a few short months.

I have zero doubts that they will blow past every single one of their roadmap goals, especially as Bitcoin continues to climb in value and more people start buying crypto.

Despite short term fluctuations in price, Atomic will continue to onboard thousands of new users every single month. The traffic numbers don’t lie. The Google search rankings don’t lie. Atomic will need to be wise about how they monetize this traffic.

The company is already profitable. The CEO is well connected and has proved he is highly competent in creating and successfully running a crypto exchange.

I have a lot more info to share about this project if there is interest, I’ll post a part 2 or a follow-up in the comments.

A profitable company of this caliber with 20 full-time employees isn’t justified at a ~$750k market cap.

https://atomicwallet.io/roadmap-for-2019
https://medium.com/@mccannatron/12-graphs-that-show-just-how-early-the-cryptocurrency-market-is-653a4b8b2720

ADDITIONAL LINKS AND FURTHER READING

  1. https://atomicwallet.io/
  2. https://twitter.com/atomicwallet
  3. https://t.me/atomicwalletchat
  4. https://github.com/Atomicwallet
  5. https://www.coinbureau.com/review/atomic-wallet/
  6. https://community.binance.org/t/proposal-for-listing-atomic-wallet-token-awc-on-binance-dex/2093

TL;DR


Currently at 750k market cap

2.7MM market cap is a 3.6x from here.
5M market cap is a 6.6x from here.
8MM market cap is a 10.6x from here.

DYOR.

submitted by key_mnk_ to CryptoMoonShots [link] [comments]

#6 lessons for newcomers: My 1 year XRP journey. Fundamentals, FOMO, FUD & Greed on the path to $5 and beyond.

6 crucial things I learned in 2017.

 
As I find it difficult to share this story with friends and family so I turn to this community. They either don’t understand or think everything that sounds like crypto is a bubble.
 
Also I hope that this story might help others to avoid the mistakes I made.
 
TLDR: * I fundamentally believe in XRP and ~10x’ed my FIAT so far (compared to $), * Could have 15x’ed if I would have not have made emotional decisions based on greed, fomo and FUD, * Make rules for yourself and stick to them. Period, * I will buy XRP till $5, * Bitstamp is a great exchange but at some point definitely secure your holdings with some level of paranoia.
 
This story is about my personal journey on the XRP train. A story about fundamental analysis, FOMO (fear of missing out), FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt), my greed, emotional trading, belief in XRP and patience.
 
My journey started with bitcoin actually in ~ 2013. I had this friend who kept talking about this bitcoin that will change the world.
 
It was around $600 at the time, I told him he was crazy and it was a bubble, without even researching it I waved his words away.
 
The higher BTC rose, the more effort I made to tell him it was a bubble and it would crash.
 
At some point it did, after reaching ~1200 or so. Major crash.
I was right!
 
In ~ 2014 I had to buy a few BTC to perform a transaction on a infamous dark web market place that is no longer.
 
After that, I forgot about bitcoin and crypto currencies….
 
Fast forward to January 2017. Crypto is on my radar again, it’s still there…
 
I start reading and following the rapid growth of BTC until April 2017. I don’t understand BTC craze. Of course, it was the first, the tech is revolutionary but there are some problems for me;
 
 
Also I found out about this ‘other thing’, XRP.
 
The more I read the more I believe in the fundamentals;
 
I soon figure out this crucial part:
If banks adopt Ripple’s software and later XRP as a bridge for international transfers they will likely need to purchase XRP to execute these transfers
 
If banks for example need to send $10 Billion, there needs to be sufficient liquidity in the XRP market for such a large USD amount to flow through XRP.
 
In May 2017, XRP is 0.22 USD with a market cap of ~ 9 Billion USD.
How the hell will banks be able to send large amounts of FIAT through XRP without causing massive price swings?
 
They cannot. I figured that if banks were going to use XRP to send let’s say USD 1 trillion on a daily basis XRPs unit price would need to be WAAAYY higher.
 
Let’s Imagine 75% of the coins is being held and not actively trading. 25% of the total supply is being traded on a daily basis. For 1 trillion USD to pass through that 25% should be at least valued at 1 Trillion USD. But likely higher because everyone involved in this want a stable price.
 
I thought that if Ripple succeeds and banks adopt Ripple’s software, it is likely that Ripple will convince banks to use XRP as well.
 
Betting on Ripple the company I believed that XRP was massively undervalued at .22 USD, especially in comparison with coins such as BTC, LTC and some others.
 
After reading up on Ripple and XRP for 2 months straight I decided to buy in for 20% of my net worth (yes, huge gamble and not recommended).
 
I buy Bitcoin at a local broker with a ~4% spread and send the BTC to Bitstamp. Upon arrival on Bitstamp a few hours later I realise that some of my BTC is missing. High transaction fees and a relatively big spread between the broker’s price and the price on bitstamp I find out later.
 
I told myself to hold XRP for 5 years.
 
This is how my journey goes after that:
 
At this point I am still high in profits (could be more if I did not sell though..)
 
 
As of now I feel very happy with 10x gains on the total FIAT amount I put in. However I also feel stupid for not sticking to my plan of holding XRP for 5 years without trading. If I had stuck to my plan I would have been up 15x by now.
 
My new plan:
 
I learned some things:
 
Hopefully this story might be of some use.
 
To all /Ripple'ers, big thanks; especially to those answering questions from newcomers and to those keeping thus sub high quality and free of memes and other low quality posts.
 
Wishing everyone a great start of 2018 and happy holding!
submitted by Muggeman to Ripple [link] [comments]

How to Use Bitcoin Exchange Rate Charts Bitcoin Price Chart with Python - Part 1 bitcoin price chart over the years - YouTube CRAZY BITCOIN MONTHLY CHART SET FOR BTC PRICE BREAKOUT ... Expert Explanation on How the Bitcoin Value Will Hit $25000

The CoinDesk 20 provides real-time prices, news, videos and educational content on the digital assets moving the crypto market, from BTC to TRX. In total, the price of bitcoin was above $1,000 for just 10 days in 2013, and only one day in 2014, according to BPI data. In 2013, prices quickly returned to the $600-$700 level, a low that, at ... Bitcoin Price Chart, 2013 This graph shows the conversion rate of 1 Bitcoin to 1 USD at the first of each month. Bitcoin Price in 2013 ($) Bitcoin Price Table, 2013 (Monthly) This chart shows the USD value of Bitcoin at the first of each month. Year Month Bitcoin Price ($) Change ($) Month-over-month (%) 2013: 12: 946.92: 748.41: 377.02: 2013 ... As of Dec 13, 2013, approximately 275,000 blocks have been mined in the bitcoin block chain. Each block contains on the order of hundreds of transactions. We describe the blockchain parsing in the following section. 5.1.1 Blockchain Parsing While the standard bitcoin client bitcoin-0.8.51 automatically downloads the whole blockchain in a P2P The world’s first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin is stored and exchanged securely on the internet through a digital ledger known as a blockchain. Bitcoins are divisible into smaller units known as satoshis — each satoshi is worth 0.00000001 bitcoin.

[index] [7897] [16940] [4664] [26320] [19406] [16738] [13034] [6150] [22598] [21237]

How to Use Bitcoin Exchange Rate Charts

A Fundstrat Global Advisors, Tom Lee, explain his bull case for Bitcoin. Here in this video the FundStrat Global Advisors uses a different method to come up with his long-term price target for ... Bitcoin price History 2013-2018. - Duration: 2:04. ... Benjamin Cowen 4,228 views. 12:20. Bitcoin all time price graph (August 2010 – October 2018) ... The Bitcoin Chart That Has Been Telling ... It will display an additional graph tracking only the registered volume of the currency. You can obtain about the same thing by clicking on the "Show Volume Bars" in the Options section. Step 5. BITCOIN PRICE UPDATE: In this btc video update today we quickly look at bitcoin zoomed out on the monthly chart and discuss what may be getting ready to happ... Bitcoin Price History Racing Bar Chart from 2013 to 2020. Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency invented in 2008 by an unknown person or group of people using the name...

#